How Op Sindoor made India a ‘major power’ in Asia
India gained 0.9 points (+2% change) in the overall score in 2025, scoring 40.0 out of 100, ranking 3rd out of 27 in the comprehensive power rankings. The USA ranks 1st and China ranks 2nd. The USA and China are the superpowers in Asia with a score of 80.5 and 73.7 respectively. While Japan is in the middle power with 38 points, Russia is in the middle power with 32.1 points. Pakistan, ranked 16th, is another middle power with 14.5 points.
As the United States grapples with its declining influence in Asia and China consolidates its position as a formidable rival, the emergence of India as Asia’s sole major power among the superpowers marks the beginning of a power shift in Asia’s strategic landscape. Below is a detailed explanation of the Asian Power Index interpretation of India, China and the United States.
India: The birth of a great power
India’s rise in 2025 is the culmination of steady progress in many dimensions of national power. India further expands its lead over Japan in 2024 by collecting 40.0 points and placing 3rd among 27 countries. Although “the huge talent gap with China has widened further,” this year’s scores underscore that India is steadily building the economic and military weight needed to influence Asia’s balance of power.
India’s improving situation is driven by its strong economic performance. The Lowy Institute notes that India’s economy “continues to grow strongly” and that this growth is translating into greater geopolitical relevance through improved connectivity, technological contributions and external leverage. India’s attractiveness to global investors has reached unprecedented levels; For the first time, it surpassed China as the second most important destination for domestic investments after the USA. This shift reflects both geopolitical realignment, particularly supply chain diversification, and India’s strengthening fundamentals as an investment destination.
India’s military capacity has also improved and Operation Sindoor, launched in May 2025, played a crucial role in this change in perception. Lowy reported that “expert assessments of its capabilities…were probably influenced by India’s performance in Operation Sindoor,” adding valuable recent combat experience to India’s defense profile. The success of the operation strengthened confidence in India’s preparedness, operational sophistication and ability to carry out complex missions. Military capability gains of +2.8 points reflect this renewed confidence. However, India’s rise remains limited due to weak networks of influence. The score of defense networks fell by -2.6 points, and although diplomatic influence improved slightly, it could not keep up with the country’s increasing resource power. The report argues that India’s diplomacy of “multiple alignment, strategic autonomy and the Global South”, although principled, “does not provide an automatic path to rapidly expand its strategic influence”. This disconnect leads to a widening Power Gap: India’s resources are increasing faster than its ability to convert those resources into influence. However, from a cultural perspective, India is gaining traction. Expanding travel links recorded the largest increase of all metrics, with a +2.8 increase in cultural clout, driven by direct flight connectivity and its growing appeal as a tourism and education hub. Newly opened routes, such as the 2025 India-Brunei direct service, symbolize India’s broader integration with regional people-to-people networks.
India’s overall story in 2025 is one of momentum fraught with constraints. His power is constantly increasing, but his ambitions still exceed his reach. Operation Sindoor strengthened India’s military profile and increased its economic dynamism; but the challenge ahead lies in turning raw talent into lasting influence, especially when compared to China’s overwhelming regional presence.
China: Consolidation amid geopolitical volatility
China, which ranks second with 73.7 points, continues to consolidate its role as Asia’s leading superpower after the USA. Its gains in 2025, however modest, underscore Beijing’s ability to navigate and even exploit uncertainties in the regional environment. Lowy notes that China is “well positioned to withstand coercive US economic policies” thanks to its broad access to global markets independent of the US. This flexibility has enabled Beijing to respond “robustly and confidently” to US tariffs by implementing retaliatory measures and tightening export controls on critical minerals.
Diplomatically, China recorded “the highest ever influence score of any country” in the Index’s history. It ranked first in both regional and global leadership indicators, supported by energetic support, including President Xi Jinping’s high-profile diplomatic activities and expanding multilateral activities. Experts have also observed an improvement in the quality of China’s diplomatic service; This reflects Beijing’s effort to present itself as a stable, reliable partner, in contrast to what many see as the unpredictability of the United States.
But China’s strengths coexist with emerging vulnerabilities. While its regional sales power has increased, China’s “purchasing power”—its ability to absorb exports from other Asian economies—has declined. This shift underscores the limits of China’s resolve to support its neighbors facing U.S. tariffs. Additionally, although China has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels of people-to-people connectivity, investment inflows remain subdued due to ongoing uncertainty in U.S.-China economic relations. Despite this, China’s recovery in tourism and the introduction of new visa-free routes to many Asian countries are strengthening China’s steady reopening to the world.
United States: Still No. 1 but drifting
Although the United States maintains first place with a score of 80.5, it faces a dramatic erosion of influence in the 2025 assessment. The Lowy Institute makes clear that the Trump administration’s policies “represent a net negative for U.S. power in Asia,” leading to the largest decline in the overall power of any country this year. Structural trends and policy choices contribute to this decline.
The US recorded “minor declines in every resource measure” signaling weakening economic and military fundamentals in Asia. While Washington maintains its unmatched technological strength and strong resilience, China has steadily narrowed the gap, especially in military capacity, with the US’s lead falling to “only two-thirds of what it was in 2017”. As China’s naval and air warfare capabilities increase, the United States strives to maintain its historic dominance of Asia’s security architecture.
Diplomatically, the United States suffered a major setback. Its foreign policy influence fell to eighth place, behind countries such as Vietnam. Experts surveyed by Lowy rated Trump’s regional leadership negatively, citing a lack of focus on Asia, tariff increases and aid and media cuts. The US has also seen a significant decline in global leadership, although the report notes that this was measured before Trump successfully brokered the Gaza ceasefire in October 2025.
Compounding these challenges is the declining appeal of the United States as a destination for travel and education, due in part to restrictive visa policies. If this trend continues, America’s soft power and long-term influence in the region may further weaken.
