How Starmer still hopes to save his premiership ahead of make-or-break elections

Angela Rayner’s speech to the left-wing Mainstream group on Tuesday evening reignited the civil war within the Labor Party and essentially set a timetable for the end of Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership.

The final thaw within the party occurred when local and devolved election campaigns were officially launched on 7 May; this date is now circled in red ink as Starmer’s D-Day.

The mood is gloomy in the Parliamentary Labor Party (PLP), with a forecast based on the results of last week’s survey analysis by modeling company Bombe suggesting Labor is on the verge of losing 1,700 council seats, with Reform gaining 1,500 and the Greens gaining around 600.

The Greens’ defeat in the Gorton and Denton by-elections was bad enough, but extinctions in Wales, Scotland, London and the old heartlands of England are now a real possibility.

This week, Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite, whose union cut 40 per cent of its funding to Labour, told Sky News out loud that many people were privately thinking: “I think there will be a move to change leaders after the May election because I think Labor will be decimated in that election. I don’t think they realize how bad that will be.”

But a plan to show Sir Keir can take back control of Labor and shift his party to the left (apparently with a move to sack two key figures in the cabinet) may still not be enough to save Sir Keir.

One last big reset

As his enemies circle him and prepare for his own death, the beleaguered prime minister is understood to be still hoping for one last great reset.

This will apparently involve bringing two sacked MPs back into the fold and pushing two big names into the line of fire.

Insiders say Ms Rayner will return alongside former transport secretary Louise Haigh, who was forced to resign over a past conviction for falsely claiming her phone had been stolen. The move would come as a surprise, given that both were forced to resign under a cloud of scandal.

Meanwhile, Lucy Powell, who was sacked from cabinet in September for being too left-wing on welfare reforms, is said to be pushing for a genuine cabinet post after winning the contest to replace Ms Rayner as deputy party leader.

Meanwhile, there is speculation that Health Secretary Mr Streeting and Chancellor Ms Reeves will also leave.

As one insider put it: “A shift to the left means a change in economic policy, which means a new chancellor.”

The current favorites to replace Ms Reeves are Torsten Bell, Treasury secretary and former policy expert for the influential Resolution Foundation, and Darren Jones, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Ms Reeves’ former aide.

But the question remains whether the Prime Minister will have the space or authority to carry out such sweeping changes in the Downing Street operation, where he has struggled to recruit anyone because, as one source put it, “no one thinks he will survive beyond May”.

Angela Rayner expects tax cut

Sir Keir has already made clear his desire to bring back Miss Rayner whenever possible. But there’s no doubt he’s weighing his own options.

Relatives say there is nothing he can do until HMRC’s investigation into his failure to pay stamp duty on a new flat in Brighton, which led to his resignation last year, is completed. There is currently no official date for when the investigation will be concluded, but it was reported this week that the issue will be resolved by the May elections.

“We thought it would be resolved one way or another by now, but we won’t complain about the time spent,” one of the allies said of the wait.

Meanwhile, supporters are conducting an internal party poll for Ms Rayner, which concludes she is one of two potential candidates to replace Sir Keir. The other is Andy Burnham, who is not an MP and therefore cannot be a leadership candidate. This means Ms Rayner’s return to Sir Keir’s government is unclear.

One ally noted: “Of course he’s willing to listen and decide what might be offered, but so far nothing has been offered.”

Regarding his leadership prospects, they added: “He did not come into politics to be prime minister, but if he had support and some competition he could have been persuaded to run.”

Code: Preparing – this seems to be confirmed in his speech on Mainstream; He made open criticisms of the current government policy and demanded a change of direction on immigration and economic policy.

Repairing Rayner’s damaged reputation

Another ally pointed out a problem beyond tax affairs; This was another problem that the Mainstream speech aimed to solve.

“The problem is that she is as tainted as anyone by her association with Starmer and his policies of cutting welfare and supporting Israel. Before that she was associated with Jeremy Corbyn. Angela has never had the chance to really present herself and what she believes in. She needs to do that before nominating any leadership.”

This makes it less likely that she will take another job with Sir Keir, but is “not impossible”, according to allies.

But it also explains his other targeted interventions, such as providing more support to pubs, bars and restaurants, or forcing the publication of articles about the appointment of Peter Mandelson, known to have links to pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, as US ambassador. Then through last week IndependentHe informs the rebels that he is dissatisfied with the reforms aimed at restricting the right to trial by jury.

Supporters laugh at suggestions he could ally with Mr Streeting.

“HE [Streeting] “I have never approached him and of course when he talks about partnership he means himself as prime minister, not him.”

Did Streeting miss his chance?

When Downing Street reported that Mr Streeting was planning a coup in December, it emerged that the prime minister was actually on the verge of sacking him for disloyalty. Some senior ministers still want him to do exactly that.

This has made the health minister an obvious target for a reshuffle aimed at showing the party that the prime minister wants to move left and leave the Blairite right behind.

So while Ms Reeves’ sacking would signal a change in policy direction on the economy, Mr Streeting’s sacking would signal Sir Keir taking back control.

A Labor source said: “Wes blew his chance. Even if he stands against Keir now – assuming he will have enough MPs to nominate him – Sir Keir thinks he can beat him in a contest and won’t back down.”

This is reflected in claims by Ms Rayner’s allies, who say their internal polls show Mr Streeting’s popularity is “waning”.

Implications of the Mandelson papers

Insiders told Independent He said Sir Keir had already stopped taking calls from Lord Mandelson, who was eventually sacked over his links to Epstein and now faces a police investigation, and had “outsourced” him to his private secretary, Mr McSweeney, when Labor was in Opposition.

“Keir did not like or trust Mandelson and found him annoying,” the insider said.

But the absence of Mandelson and McSweeney, who stood down amid the scandal of his disgraced colleague vetting for the Washington job, leaves Sir Keir in trouble over his planned reshuffle and reset.

A source said: “There is no one in the operation to do political work on who should be in and who should be out.

“The last change was basically made by McSweeney and Mandelson, which is why it was so bad and out of proportion. They couldn’t wait to get rid of Angela and promote their favourites.”

“But the prime minister doesn’t have the capacity to do that on his own, and the problem is that there’s no one there who can actually do that on his behalf.”

This is a government that seems to have reached its final stage.

“It’s hard to hire someone who thinks the prime minister might be gone in May,” one adviser wrote in a piece that could be a damning footnote to a dying government.

Sir Keir is starving for allies and support just when he needs to make the biggest and most dramatic reset yet as he prepares for what some fear could be an “existential defeat” in the May election.