How their correlation will define the shape of Indian Capital Market Future

Think of it this way, if stellar market returns are causing youngsters to grab the opportunity, resulting in increased Demat accounts with brokers, given the current market dynamics, youngsters, also called flippers, generally look for short-term returns. Therefore, it led to an increase in trading activity between them in the Futures and Options Segment.

What this boils down to is more activity in trading; Regarding Groww IPO performance, most users want to get some benefit, so signing up with them will increase their user base which will result in more trading activity in the Futures & Options and Stock Segment. The connection between the two is deeper than it seems: their rise not only reflects the democratization of investment in India but also directly strengthens the engines of growth. The connection between both is deeper and extremely important; It seems that their rise and stronghold reflects the launch of investment in India but also gives them the opportunity to strengthen their business growth. This correlation underpins the exchange’s strong listing hopes.

In FY 2025, NSE Year highlighted Financial Strength:

The stock market regained some credibility in fiscal 2025; because it was one of the most efficient and profitable institutions in India, in fact the most profitable stock exchange. If we look at the numbers, the stock market reported revenue of ₹ 17,141 crore, up nearly 16% from the previous year. PAT rose almost 45% to Rs 12.188 billion; These are the numbers that will stand out from the crowd in Fintech Space. They revealed what true operational margins look like in this industry, with EBITDA margins of over 75%.

Although it is a cliché, the exchange has an almost monopolistic position as the Indian trading market almost single-handedly dominates over 80% of the global derivatives market managed by the exchange. This is not a self-indulgent comment, but it is an unprecedented share in global finance. Few businesses in the world have this much scale and recurring revenue.

Dependency Equation:

The most interesting insights we gathered from Analysts at Stakehub were the relationship between NSE and Groww; not only them, but also other leading brokers. However, they are the best broker here as they are leaders in Brokerage and fintech space. They collect brokerage; Meanwhile, the exchange collects transaction fees regardless of brokerage model. Every transaction made by a Demat holder generates a portion of the revenue for the exchange; This is also true in Futures and options trading as most of their revenue comes from F&O.

This reflects the classic Independent dependent variable relationship, where the stock market is the base layer and brokers are the top value-added layer. Their strategic and heavy-duty revenue model means that most transactions go through the backend of the exchange. In layman’s terms, 1159 Cr Inr was calculated for them through transaction costs alone.

On the other hand, our national exchange is not equally dependent on them. While the latter account for the majority of new users added, i.e. approx. First of all, 72% of the annual growth in the stock market reported and recognized in FY 2025. It empowers the exchange, but the exchange is not solely dependent on a single broker or leading fintech firm.

Instead, this asymmetry creates a structural moat:

Retail Participation Explosion:

Stepping on the bullet train is another apt metaphor for Indian retail investors, as there has been an explosion in the participation rate from just 4 billion to 20 billion from 2020 to 2025.

This sudden rise has been further fueled by smartphone penetration, low-cost brokers, simple KYC norms and financial curiosity spread through social media and influencers. In other words, a new novice or rookie investor participating in the markets through these broker platforms not only benefits them, but also strengthens the income model, which is more than 90% dependent on the exchange’s participation volume rate.

IPO valuation:

The only place where success is rightly conveyed is in the over-the-counter space, where its shares are listed and are rising day by day. Although its shares are trading around INR 1950(Unlisted Shares on NSE), the analyst has an optimistic view on the price adjusting close to INR 4000. This shows the huge investor buy-in strength in the company, but the final price will depend on the price range the company sets before launching its IPO.

Based on our comparative analysis with its sister branch, BSE is strengthening its valuation measures. They outperform BSE in terms of large multiples on revenue, profit and margins, but their shares trade at a discount to BSE public market valuations. The valuation difference alone creates significant room for listing day appreciation.

There are 3 reasonable expectations for listing earnings:

• Base case: 20–30%

• Taurus condition: 40–60%

• Bear case: 10–15%

From bear to base case to bull scenario, this is a win-win situation for Indian retail investors holding unlisted shares. The question is: Is it too late to invest? From the market perspective and the current future growth trajectory of the stock market, it is never too late to invest.

Take Force Motors, unlike the above situation, in FY 2023 the shares of the company were hovering around INR 1500. The most interesting fact about this is that analysts covering the stock at the time had little to no coverage; This led to the formation of another investor perception; This meant that the stock was too small to enter, that it was risky to make long-term bets, or that the investment entry period had already passed, or that eventually the stock’s price appreciation had already occurred. What happened next? The next 20 years saw a huge rise in share price; It rose to almost INR 17,260 and gave investors a market return of 1868% during the said period.

It is different but somehow similar to this, why this explanation is because it is not just any stock but a top notch Indian Stock Exchange that has its roots on a global scale and will list itself in the coming times.

Why NSE’s IPO Could Be a Once-in-A-Generation Opportunity

The most important highlight is that the exchange is the core of the Indian Financial market, a platform that constantly benefits from every trade executed on its indices regarding every new Demat account registration.

The correlation study further clarified their success by proving that investors are willing to invest and contribute to the growth of the Indian capital market.

As more Brokers enter the market, new Demat accounts are opened and retail participation rate deepens, this has put them in a good position to grasp value creation from every opportunistic aspect. If market sentiment reflects what we witnessed with Groww’s IPO, the earnings listing could be significant, making it one of the defining capital markets events of this decade.

Disclaimer:

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