How Trump went from saying Strait of Hormuz ‘will open itself’ to acknowledging Iran’s power to control the waterway
President Trump has been issuing ultimatums about the Strait of Hormuz for weeks, demanding complete freedom of navigation for shippers.
What if Iran doesn’t comply? Trump said he would respond “swiftly and fiercely.”
However, despite repeated requests, Iran retained the line and continued to control shipping in the region, leaving ship passage at a fraction of what it was before the war.
This led to a rhetorical shift by the president this week, who openly acknowledged – if somewhat reluctantly – the regime’s ability to control the 33-kilometre-wide waterway.
At Thursday’s Cabinet meeting, Trump even noted Iran’s increasing efforts to charge transit fees to shippers.
“They shouldn’t be able to do it, but they’re doing it a little bit,” the president said.
Read more: What could an extended war with Iran mean for gas prices?
President Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting at the White House on March 26. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) ·Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images
Trump also described an exchange in ongoing peace talks in which Iranian representatives said they would allow “eight major oil boats” to pass through the strait and then kept their word.
This clearly impressed the president and was a frank admission made just days after he demanded that Iran “fully open” the strait.
At another point in recent weeks he mused: “At a certain point, [the Strait] It will open itself.”
Iran’s resilience in this area poses a major challenge to the White House’s efforts to quickly end the war and calm energy markets that have been roiled by what is increasingly being described as the biggest oil shock in history.
Read more: How do oil price shocks affect your wallet, from gasoline to groceries?
Trump also floated the idea of ending hostilities and leaving dealing with the Strait of Hormuz to others; but observers warned of the dire economic consequences of such a move.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said in an interview with the BBC this week that oil prices could reach $150 a barrel and cause a global recession if Iran remains “a threat to the Strait of Hormuz” after the end of hostilities.
Prices are currently around $100 per barrel. Since the start of the war, futures for both the international oil benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) and the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) are up nearly 40%.
Trump’s changing rhetoric about the strait reflects an important reality in the region: Ship traffic has plummeted because Iran has veto power over who passes through.
MarineTraffic as a ship tracking service put it in wednesday updateTraffic in the Bosphorus appears to be open only to those “pre-approved” by Iran. Some ships were even turned away.
Trump said the tankers moving this week passed under the Pakistani flag (Pakistan is acting as a mediator in the talks) and were followed by a total of 10 boats, including two boats.
Movement was significant but remained well below pre-war levels, when more than 100 ships passed through the strait on any given day.
But this led President Trump to conclude: “I think we were dealing with the right people.”
Meanwhile, Iran’s semi-official state media Fars reported that Iran continued to allow passage to “friendly countries” and that senior Iranian officials announced evolving plans. charge ships is transitioning.
About 20% of the world’s oil and many other important products passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war. These shipments have almost come to a halt since February 28, when the US and Israeli attacks began.
The bottom line — as Trump said on Thursday — looks like there will be complete relief for energy markets and shippers, but “if they get the right deal, the strait will open.”
Satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. (Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2025) ·Gallo Images via Getty Images
Approximately 10 days after the start of the war, the escalating problem in the Strait of Hormuz completely entered the president’s radar, and that is when the president started issuing ultimatums.
Just a few hours after March 9 He argued that the Bosphorus would ‘remain safe’ Trump stated that if Iran “does anything” to disrupt the flow of oil, it will be “hit 20 TIMES harder than it has ever been hit by the United States.”
third Followed on March 13Trump announced an attack on military targets on Kharg Island, but then went further and promised to destroy the oil infrastructure there; “If Iran or anyone else does anything that would interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.”
President Trump gestures as he arrives at Palm Beach International Airport on February 27, hours before the first attacks in Iran. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images) ·MANDEL NGAN via Getty Images
The following days saw the president start an effort getting help from other countries in the strait before declaring at Truth Social a few days later “WE DON’T NEED ANYONE’S HELP”.
Last Saturday, Trump promised that “if Iran does NOT FULLY OPEN THE Strait of Hormuz WITHOUT THREAT within 48 HOURS from this point in time,” then he will “strike and destroy various POWER PLANTS.”
Trump after Thursday’s Cabinet meeting explained this He will move away from plans for what he calls the “Power Plant demolition period” for another 10 days and allow negotiations to continue until 20:00 on April 6.
This story has been updated.
Ben Werschkul is Yahoo Finance’s Washington correspondent.
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