How will India’s overall exports grow despite US losses?
Donald Trump and Indian tariffs: India remains flexible and global trade momentum continues to be positive. It is likely that its total exports will grow by 5% despite the implementation of 50% cumulative tariffs despite the decreases in exports to the USA. The details are here.
US President Donald Trump claimed that India had purchased crude oil and weapons and helped Russia in the war against Ukraine.
The US administration, led by Donald Trump, made a 50%cumulative tariff by making most of India’s exports to Washington against competition. It is understood that India’s 2025 financial financial exports to the United States may lose $ 86.5 billion or two -thirds or $ 57.66 billion. According to a study conducted by the Delhi -based Global Trade Research Initiative, sectors with more than 30% of India’s global exports will be the most difficult hit. Textile and clothing, jewels and jewels, shrimp, carpets, agricultural products, metal products and furniture sectors will be affected most negatively. However, analysts believe that India is flexible and that the global trade momentum remains positive despite US losses.
How much will India’s exports grow?
According to the Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative, despite the expected decrease in exports to the USA, it is possible to grow 5% of the general Indian exports in 2025-26 financially. Exports may increase from $ 350.9 billion to 368.5 billion dollars in 2026 financially. India’s service exports are expected to grow by 10%and can jump from $ 383.5 billion to $ 421.9 billion. Exports of Indian services, which are managed by CT, Business Services, FinTech and Health Services, may even increase in the USA. India’s total exports, goods and services are likely to increase from 820.9 billion dollars to 839.9 billion dollars in 2025 MY, which is 2.3% general earnings despite heavy US losses.
How much can GDP grow?
India recorded a GDP of 4,270 billion dollars in 2015 fiscal year. Under normal conditions, FY2026 is expected to grow by 6.5%. However, the FY2025 base may be reduced to 4.233.1 billion dollars due to export loss of $ 36.9 billion to the USA. If the Indian economy grew by 6.5% in 2026 financially, the GDP would reach $ 4,508.25 billion. It means that the effective growth rate will be 5.6%and 0.9 percent less. However, this is the worst scenario. Since the Union Government explains the GST reform and promises to increase the ease of work and aggressive exports diversity, Indian deficit can balance the deficit and maintain solid growth.
Although the US tariff uses labor intensive sectors such as textile, jewelry, shrimp, carpets and furniture, most Indian companies can discover new markets and direct their exports to the European Union member states, Latin American and African nations. Since exporting only 20% of GDP, India’s growth is less vulnerable to external shocks.
FAQ
Q1: How much can India suffer in exports to the USA due to 50% tariffs?
Ans.: India can lose $ 86.5 billion in exports to the United States or $ 57.66 billion in 2025 financially.
Q2: How much can India grow?
Ans.: India’s total exports, goods and services are likely to increase from 820.9 billion dollars to 839.9 billion dollars in 2025 MY, which is 2.3% general earnings despite heavy US losses.
Summary
According to the Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative, despite the expected decrease in exports to the USA, it is possible to grow 5% of the general Indian exports in 2025-26 financially. Exports may increase from $ 350.9 billion to 368.5 billion dollars in 2026 financially.
