In deep blue California, frustration with Democratic status quo fuels governor, L.A. mayor race
As primary voters head to the polls Tuesday to determine which candidates will face off in November to become governor of California and mayor of Los Angeles, both races are wide open with a new crop of candidates challenging the Democratic status quo.
So far, little clear consensus has emerged for Democrats on who should lead the city and state in the future.
Democrats in California’s crowded gubernatorial race have struggled in recent months to agree on a candidate to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom.
After Ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends his campaign Following sexual harassment allegations in April Biden’s former cabinet member Xavier Becerra took a step forward by positioning himself as the safe, experienced Democratic candidate. Another Democrat, billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, and former Fox News commentator Republican Steve Hilton are close behind.
In Los Angeles, experience seems to be a liability as well as an advantage.
Mayor Karen Bass finds herself in the extraordinary position of an incumbent fighting to advance to a runoff while coming under attack from left and right. Latest UC Berkeley-LA Times poll It shows Bass leading with just 26% of the vote, one point ahead of arrogant Democratic socialist City Councilwoman Nithya Raman and four points ahead of Republican Spencer Pratt, a former reality TV star.
“There’s a clear sense of disappointment in the Democratic Party,” said Sara Sadhwani, a professor of politics at Pomona College. The reason a wave of conservative outsiders like Pratt and Hilton has fared so well in such a liberal city and state is because they are more willing to voice the challenges facing Los Angeles and California, Sadhwani said.
“Democrats are very concerned about not upsetting one coalition or another, so this is the usual policy for most Democratic candidates,” Sadhwani said. “Spencer Pratt poked a hole in this by naming the problems that ordinary residents and voters see and feel on the ground.”
On the issue of homelessness, many Angelenos are disappointed Bass did not move the needle significantly.
“We can point to facts and figures that might suggest that something has changed,” Sadhwani said. “But when you walk the streets of Los Angeles, it doesn’t feel like it, so it didn’t pass the field test. That’s the problem.”
A growing segment of Angelenos are also unhappy with the city’s high cost of living. And many are angry about the Bass administration’s lack of preparation and response to the 2025 Palisades fire.
“Democrats need to be held accountable for these challenges,” Sadhwani said. “They’ve been in power all this time.”
California, of course, remains a Democratic stronghold, and polls show the state’s voters overwhelmingly oppose President Trump. His second-term agenda, including a sweeping crackdown on immigrants, tariffs and war in Iran, appears to have only solidified California’s status as a resistance state.
But after all these years of Democratic dominance in Sacramento and Los Angeles City Hall, leaders must respond to voters’ frustrations.
The two candidates who received the most votes in California’s nonpartisan primary will advance to a runoff election in November unless one candidate manages to receive more than 50 percent of the vote.
Republicans voted at higher rates than Democrats in early voting. Older Democrats who cast their votes reliably have been slower to vote this year, possibly because two Republicans are on the gubernatorial ballot and the Democratic field is divided, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., a Sacramento-based bipartisan firm.
“That caused them to turn to a lot more strategic voting,” Mitchell said, noting that many people expected to cast their ballots for the Democrat who appeared to have the best chance of advancing to November.
For the GOP, putting a candidate on the November gubernatorial ballot means more than showing that Republicans are players in California. A GOP nominee would turn out more Republicans to vote in the general election, make the party more likely to win down-ballot races and pass a GOP-led ballot initiative on voter ID.
For Democrats, the midterm races offer the party its first big chance to chart a new path for the future.
As polls show Trump is losing popularityDemocrats in California and beyond have been struggling to agree on what went wrong for a year and a half after Kamala Harris’ crushing defeat in 2024.
The Democratic National Committee’s long-awaited autopsy The results of this election, with Harris saying she was “erasing rural America,” wrongly assuming that identity politics would win over voters of color, and failing to develop a “defined or coherent” strategy against Trump, have only created further distress.
“There is no clear vision, there is no clear policy agenda, and Donald Trump’s presidency has turned the world of politics as we know it upside down,” Sadhwani said. “It’s unclear how any Democrat, including individuals in these two races, will navigate the future. One thing is certain: We’re not going back. So which of these candidates will lead us into an uncertain future?”
Referendum in Bass
In Los Angeles, the election is a referendum on Bass. Committed in 2022 solving homelessness, reducing crime, and making the city more affordable.
“How has Los Angeles changed in four years?” said Christian Grose, professor of political science and public policy at USC. “The Bass campaign says the situation is changing for the better and still needs more time. All the other candidates, from very different perspectives, say the situation is much worse than it was four years ago and it’s time for new leadership.”
Bas told The Times, which he plans to win in November by showing the progress his administration has made in clearing homeless encampments and accelerating the construction of affordable housing. He also noted that data shows homicides in the city are at their lowest level since 1966.
Challenging from the left is Bass, Raman, who was elected in 2020 as the first DSA-backed L.A. City Council member. Raman, who has asserted himself as a viable progressive in the race, accused Bass of not doing enough to make the city affordable and criticized Bass’ spending on Inside Safe, a program to move homeless people into stable housing. Although Raman presents himself as an outsider, he is a former ally of Bass and has chaired the council’s Housing and Homelessness Committee for more than three years.
“He is definitely part of the institution,” Sadhwani said. “She’s been at City Hall longer than Karen Bass.”
During the campaign, Raman moved towards the center and distanced himself from the center to appeal to more moderates. past calls to defund the policeIt alienated some DSA members who complained they didn’t know what it stood for. Three fellow DSA City Council members agreed Bass.
Pratt is challenging Bass and the entire Democratic status quo.
The former star of “The Hills,” who lost her home in the Palisades fire, surprised many political observers with her success in handling the city’s 2025 firestorm. He called homeless people drug-addicted “zombies” and argued that the housing crisis in Los Angeles required tough police action.
Pratt contributed much more to the campaign than Bass and Raman. He also created national online buzz by running an aggressive social media campaign and inspiring his supporters to run viral AI election campaign ads.
Still, most political experts agree that Bass has the optimal path to victory; It will start with a solid base of black voters and a large portion of Latino voters, as well as the support of strong unions.
“Under normal circumstances, or at least historical circumstances, that would have been enough to get him over the finish line,” said Jim Newton, managing director of the UCLA Blueprint magazine and a former political journalist for The Times. “What’s a problem for him is that there are people who are angry at him.”
A reset in California
Newsom has emerged in recent years as the national face of the Democratic resistance to Trump, bolstering California’s status through lawsuits against Trump and capitalized trolling.
Regardless of which candidate replaces Newsom, things will be different.
Front-runner Becerra is a safe-bet career politician who has served as California attorney general and U.S. Health and Human Services secretary. When asked recently why he was rising in the polls, Bercerra said he thought voters wanted it. “Experience, not shine and sizzle.”
He promised to issue an executive order California’s housing shortage declared an emergency and directing state agencies to cover every Californian affected by federal or Medi-Cal deductions. He also touts his record of prosecuting Trump as state attorney general 122 times.
Steyer, a hedge fund billionaire, called himself “most progressive candidate on the ballot.” He promised to build a million affordable homes, make the rich pay more taxes, and protect the environment; These attitudes are sure to irk Sacramento lobbyists and test the limits of California progressivism. But its past investments in coal plants and ICE prisons raise questions among some voters.
“His wealth is kind of his Achilles heel in the election,” Grose said. “Voters see him as more of a billionaire than a progressive.”
Republicans appear to have rallied around Hilton, a British expat and former top strategist for conservative prime minister David Cameron who has won Trump’s support and campaigned on the message that California is a failing state in need of radical reforms.
owned by Hilton committed to Cutting government spending, making housing more affordable, and Bring gas prices down. But to achieve some of his goals, he would cut utilities and environmental regulations and increase domestic oil and natural gas production; these were strategies that many Californians might be hesitant to get behind.
Whichever candidate advances to the runoff, the California Democratic Party will face questions about its strategy and vision. Less than two months ago, the party chairman had pressured Becerra to drop out of the race to make room for Swalwell.
“Frankly, the party has lost its way in California,” Sadhwani said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the California Democratic Party looks for new leadership after this election.”
Can a Republican win?
With the top two places in each contest up for grabs, election experts warn that voting results may not be known for days.
If Republicans advance to the runoff, they have a very good chance of being elected in November in a state where Democrats have 100 percent more registered voters than Republicans. more than 20 percent points.
GOP strategist Rob Stutzman said neither Hilton nor Pratt were likely to win. But if they make it to the second round, they could have a big impact on the political landscape by advancing “grievance issues that really shine a light on what I call the incompetence of the blue state.”
Of all the candidates, Mitchell said Pratt, as an outside expert on Instagram and TikTok, has the greatest opportunity to build a new constituency. But it also goes after the hardest-to-vote voters: disaffected voters upset with the system.
Pratt has more retweets and viral videos than any other candidate, Mitchell said. “But that doesn’t give him the voting rights of the disgruntled DoorDash driver who believes the system is broken and hasn’t voted in the last five elections.”
If Republicans fail to make it through the primary, Democrats will likely hit the reset button, Mitchell said.
“The Pratt run kind of masked the differences between Raman and Bass,” Mitchell said. “This is like a chess match versus a WWE match. I think the choice between Raman and Bass would be more strategic and nuanced than Spencer Pratt trying to hit Karen Bass in the head with a chair.”
