In South Australia One Nation has put meat on the bones of its polling surge – now both major parties need to respond | South Australian election 2026
Rarely – perhaps never – has the winner of an election felt like the subplot to a larger and more important narrative than in South Australia on Saturday night.
The ABC announced the results for Peter Malinauskas and his Labor government less than 90 minutes after the polls closed, confirming opinion polls that had long predicted a landslide victory.
But it was the traces of political carnage and insurgency they left in their wake that would prove the bigger story in SA and beyond.
The election has been billed as the first test of whether the rebel One Nation can convert support in the opinion polls into votes at the ballot box and what this means primarily for the Liberals but also for Labour.
With 30% of the votes counted on Saturday night, One Nation had 21.1% of the primary vote, ahead of the Liberals.
The biggest swings were in areas where once-safe Liberal seats were under threat, such as Chaffey and Hammond and independent Narungga.
Even if none of these turn orange, One Nation will have a significant presence in the SA parliament with Cory Bernardi, state president Carlos Quaremba and another candidate likely to win seats in the upper house.
While One Nation eroded the Liberal vote, Labor advanced into the city’s blue districts, flipping the metropolitan seats of Colton, Hartley, Morialta and Unley.
The political pincer movement, which could leave Ashton Hurn’s Liberals with just four or five seats once the count is complete, is a microcosm of the stalemate the party faces nationally.
Where does the Liberal party fit into Australia’s modern political landscape?
One Nation has also skinned the government in working-class suburbs such as Elizabeth in Adelaide’s north and Kaurna in the city’s south, proving that Pauline Hanson’s right-wing populism also appeals to Labor voters.
If Saturday night was a litmus test, One Nation passed.
The results will be collected separately in the coming days and evaluated for possible federal consequences.
According to federal opposition leader Angus Taylor, it would be foolish to expect what happened on Saturday to be properly reflected in the federal sphere.
Malinauskas is a uniquely talented politician and far more popular than prime minister Anthony Albanese.
Likewise, the SA Liberals are a uniquely dysfunctional political union; Their leadership turnstile over the last four years makes their Canberra counterparts look stable by comparison.
But it would be naive to think that Taylor and Albanese don’t have clear red flags themselves.
There is now verifiable evidence that Hanson entered the mainstream with a deep distrust and distaste for the political establishment; This may be exacerbated by rapidly rising fuel prices and rising interest rates.
Hanson said he felt “vindicated” by Saturday night’s result; This result will give One Nation momentum ahead of the Farrer by-election on May 3 and the Victorian election in November.
The question now for the major parties is how to respond.
The major parties are right to call out Hanson for his comments about Muslims and other communities, and how he feeds grievances by offering hollow solutions to real and complex problems facing many Australians.
But politicians would be seriously misled if they believed the grievance wasn’t there, or if they misunderstood what fueled it.
This is where Malinauskas offers the most useful template in the fight against One Nation.
The Labor prime minister did not ignore or minimize victimization during the campaign; He argued that this stemmed from a legitimate sense of “lost opportunity”, particularly regarding housing.
He argued that the role of government parties is to design and deliver policies that actually solve problems.
Playing on the sidelines may not be enough anymore.
Because something has changed in Australian politics.
