‘India is going to face a food crisis’: Farmers panic over fertiliser shortages amid Iran war | India

Gurvinder Singh never thought that the war in Iran would touch the quiet corner of Punjab.

But the 52-year-old farmer can’t think of anything else as he looks after his small farm, where he alternates between wheat and rice crops in the state known as the breadbasket of India. His anxiety about a conflict raging thousands of miles away is paralyzing as he fears what will happen to this season’s rice crop.

“We are already having a snow problem,” Singh said. “If we don’t buy fertilizer, productivity will decrease. This will affect my whole family and the whole region because we are completely dependent on agriculture.

“We pray for this war to stop because it will not save us either,” he added.

Iran’s decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s critical shipping routes, in retaliation for the US and Israel’s decision to attack the country a month ago, has thrown the world into dizzying turmoil due to the impact on oil and gas supplies from Gulf countries, which are now facing a global shortage.

But analysts and global organizations warn that this impact will soon go far beyond the exorbitant prices of barrels of oil and could be devastating for global food security. Due to inadequate agriculture, fears of food shortages and depletion of stocks are increasing, especially in developing countries. World Food Program estimates an extra 45 million people could be pushed to food acute food insecurity if the conflict doesn’t end by June.

Experts say South Asian countries such as India and Sri Lanka are particularly vulnerable due to their heavy reliance on imported fertilizer and imported gas and fuel for farming. India is the world’s second largest consumer of fertilizer after China; 60m The majority of these exports (including both final products and raw materials), which are around tons annually, generally come from the Gulf countries and are sent via the Strait of Hormuz.

In countries like India, the ripple effects of gas and fertilizer shortages could be felt in the coming months, affecting the crops farmers are able to plant and how much yield they receive, which could ultimately lead to dwindling stocks of staple crops such as rice.

Farmers’ ability to irrigate, harvest, process, store and transport crops will also be greatly affected by oil and diesel shortages and rising electricity prices, triggering further concerns about shortages.

India spent more than 1.8 trillion rupees ($22 billion) on fertilizer subsidies in 2023-24; This underlines how critical fertilizer subsidies are for Indian farmers and how sensitive the agricultural sector is to global price shocks. Agricultural economist Devinder Sharma said early signals point to tighter supplies and rising costs due to the war already being passed on to farmers. “Indian agriculture remains heavily dependent on chemical fertilisers. Any disruption would quickly create concern,” he said.

Conflict is already straining supply chains. Farmers say they are particularly concerned about urea, the nitrogen-based fertilizer at the heart of Indian agriculture. It is widely used as a primary food ingredient and its annual consumption is approximately 35 to 40 million tonnes. Although most of it is produced domestically, production relies on imported natural gas, which is already limited in the country. Gas supplies to these factories were cut by 30%.

In states such as Punjab and Haryana, where grain production is important, farmers say that the direct impact has not been seen yet, but there is panic. purchasing for kharif The season usually begins in May before the planting of crops such as rice and cotton in June and July, leaving a narrow window for fertilizer shortages to begin affecting harvest yields.

kharif Approximately 100 million tons of rice are usually produced per season in India. Farmers usually buy fertilizer in the next 15 to 20 days, but many stock up in advance. “I have never seen this much panic in my 35 years in this business,” said Prakash Limbuyya Swami, a fertilizer retailer in Hubballi, Karnataka.

Authorities insist that fertilizer plants are operating normally and buffer stocks are higher than last year, despite previous reports suggesting some factories were facing gas shortages.

“We currently have higher stocks compared to last year, indicating a healthy supply position,” said Aparna S Sharma, a senior official in the fertilizer department, adding that sourcing has been diversified beyond traditional suppliers in the Gulf.

However, despite these assurances, anxiety continues among farmers. Many small-scale farmers in India are already operating at heavy losses and burdened by debt despite significant government subsidies for crops, in a system that agricultural experts have long described as broken and exploitative.

“Due to panic, farmers around me started hoarding fertilizer despite its limited shelf life,” said Tejveer Singh, whose farm is in Punjab’s Ambala city. “Any shortage will impact our productivity. Farmers are already stressed by rising costs. This will be a big blow.”

In Sri Lanka, fears of depleting staple crop nutrients have been particularly troubling. Farmers in the country faced a similar situation less than five years ago, amid an economic crisis that left Sri Lanka unable to purchase imported fertilizer, leading to devastating profit losses and staple crop shortages.

Accordingly a UN reportSri Lanka has emerged as one of the most vulnerable countries, after Sudan, if the conflict in the Gulf continues and continues to hinder fertilizer supplies.

P Amila, a farmer from Bibila in Monaragala district, said he had already been warned about the huge pic increases. As a result, he had decided not to plant next season’s rice crop for fear of going into further debt.

“This is the most volatile situation I have encountered in my 30 years of farming,” he said. “This will not be easy in the future. I worry about what people will do when they don’t have rice to buy.”

The Sri Lankan government said it was taking steps to control prices and rationing and distribute fertilizer fairly to areas that need it most, especially areas on the east coast where the next yala harvest season for rice begins.

But Anuradha Tennakoon, president of the National Agricultural Union, warned that Sri Lanka’s looming fertilizer crisis is even bigger than the fuel crisis. “The government and officials say there is enough fertilizer. This is a big lie. There is no stock,” he said. “There is a serious food security problem if this yala season is affected. Disruption of food security poses a threat to national security.”

In Polonnaruwa, farmer Ranjit Hulugalle said fertilizer stocks in his area were already running low and their prices had almost doubled. He described the situation as a “minefield” for both farmers and consumers. “We, as farmers, will face a major crisis within a month,” he said in despair. “Then the country will face a food crisis.”