India Staring At A Poorer Than Predicted Monsoon

IMD’s first long-term forecast on April 14 predicted that this year’s monsoon rainfall would be 92 percent of the long-term average (LPA) with a probability of plus or minus 5 percent. According to IMD, based on rainfall data between 1971 and 2020, normal LPA was 87 cm. With 92 percent predicted, the country is expected to receive 80 cm of rain during June-July-August-September (JJAS). If it had been 5 percent plus, 84.35 cm of rain would have fallen.

However, the meteorological community is now worried that all indicators show that the monsoon is even weaker. The El Niño phenomenon over the central Pacific Ocean, which typically affects the monsoon, occurred, for all practical purposes, much earlier than expected. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over the Arabian Sea, the monsoon’s saving grace, which meteorologists hope will turn positive in July-August, is now expected to occur after the monsoon season officially ends in September.

It is reliably learned that when the IMD releases its next and final second-phase long-term forecast before the end of this month, it is likely to revise its initial forecasts to take into account the occurrence of El Niño and the delayed IOD turning positive from its current neutral phase.

“This will mean less rain than we had hoped for. We could face a drought-like year in many parts of the country,” a source said.

El Nino is expected to be a strong event this year; some meteorologists are already calling this a possible ‘super’ and ‘historic’ event. “The main concern is whether El Nino conditions will persist until the start of the next monsoon season. We don’t know what might happen if that happens, but there is no certainty as to how things will shape up by then,” said a meteorologist.

Historically, the El Niño phenomenon lasts nine to 12 months. If this year’s El Nino formation becomes official in June or July, it may still be around come next year’s monsoon season.

June will be the best of the worst, September will be painful

The 2026 monsoon season is not only off to a slow start in terms of rain, but could also end with a whimper.

D., a research scientist from the National Center for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom. “There is very high confidence in the occurrence of El Nino. Climate models would not have been strong last month, but current models suggest that the overall deviation from normal rainfall during June-July-August-September (JJAS) will be around 14 per cent,” Akshay Deoras told Deccan Chronicle on Tuesday.

The UK Met Office said forecasts based on the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Forecasts point to a further deterioration of the monsoon season.

While each of the four monsoon months is expected to result in a rainfall deficit, June may be the month with the least deficit of 13.3 percent; September, which marks the end of the JJAS season, is likely to be the sting in the tail of the monsoon season with a whopping 23.9 per cent deficit. Dr Deoras said the three models on which these forecasts are based indicate that the monsoon is weakening further.

Government tells farmers don’t hold your breath for rain

The Center warned farmers not to worry about the onset of monsoon this year and said that rain does not start at the same time everywhere every year.

In a message titled ‘Information for farmers’ sent to PM Kisan scheme beneficiaries on Tuesday, the government said farmers can get messages about when it might rain in their area. But the government also said: “Please be careful”; There is no need for the regular rainy season in any region to start at the same time every year.

This announcement coincidentally comes just ahead of the India Meteorological Department’s second and final monsoon season forecast, which is expected to be released any time before the end of this month.

The heat dome set the stage – now hot winds from the north are sizzling the state

The first was a heat dome that left Telangana baking in persistently high temperatures for the past two weeks. Now, the northwest winds pumping hot air do not leave room for the air to cool down, and the current conditions are expected to continue for a few more days.

Only the southern periphery of the heat dome had upper air circulation over northern Telangana, but this was enough to prevent hot air from rising into the atmosphere and dissipating heat. “The dome formed around May 19 and dissipated on May 23, and this hot circulating air mass, with a diameter of about 500 to 600 km, sat like a lid over northern Telangana, central and north-west India, preventing the head from dissipating by acting like a lid,” Dr GNRS Srinivas explained.

“The hot air on the ground had nowhere to go but sideways, and this caused hot winds to blow sideways, further exacerbating the already hot conditions,” Dr Srinivas said.

Although the ongoing heatwave conditions appear to be experiencing a rare event for the state, Dr Srinivas said the situation Telangana is currently facing falls in the ‘normal’ summer category as per the temperature records of the last 30 to 40 years. “However,” he explained, “if the temperature ‘feels’ much warmer than last year or the last few years, then people are right. This summer is hotter than what the state experienced between 2020 and 2025, with summers being milder in those years.”

He also said this year’s summer appeared to be particularly hot, with sustained heat lasting 10 days or more. “The consistency of high temperatures was first due to the heat dome, now due to the warm northwest winds bringing heat from Rajasthan and Central India to Telangana. Such persistent heat is not normal for the state,” Dr Srinivas said.

Meanwhile, IMD said that heatwave conditions will continue in Telangana for the next few days and red and orange alerts will be activated in many districts for the next three days.