India’s Population to Stabilise by 2080 Due to Dip in Fertility Rate: IASP

He said India is experiencing a rapid demographic transition and the birth rate has fallen sharply in the last two decades.

“In 2000, our TFR was 3.5 and today it is 1.9. This is a serious decline,” Anil Chandran, general secretary of the Indian Association of Population Surveys (IASP), told PTI. he said.

India’s population is expected to reach 1.8 or 1.9 billion by 2080, when growth is expected to stabilize, he said.

“All estimates suggest that India’s maximum population will remain below two billion,” added Chandran.

He attributed the decline in fertility primarily to increasing levels of development and education. Increasing female literacy directly shapes decisions about marriage and childbearing and leads to smaller families, he said.

Greater use of birth control methods and wider access to birth control has further accelerated the decline, he said.

“Couples today are better informed and have more control over when and how many children they have,” said Chandran.

Later marriages and increased economic opportunities, especially for women pursuing careers, also significantly impact reproductive choices, he said.

“Development is inversely proportional to birth rates. The fertility level in the illiterate groups is still above three, but among the educated, the TFR varies between 1.5 and 1.8,” he said.

Citing the example of Kerala, Chandran said the state achieved replacement level fertility (2.1) between 1987 and 1989 and currently has a TFR of around 1.5.

West Bengal has also seen a sharp decline in its fertility rate. According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023, the state’s TFR decreased from 1.7 in 2013 to 1.3; That’s a decline of about 18 percent and well below the 2.1 replacement level. He said West Bengal currently ranks among the lowest in the country, at par with Tamil Nadu and just above Delhi, while also recording the lowest urban TFR and second lowest rural TFR nationally.

The demographer noted that while birth rates are decreasing, life expectancy continues to increase due to improvements in healthcare.

“More people are living over 60, and this brings new challenges to elderly care, especially as young people migrate to work,” he said, adding that solutions such as nurseries for the elderly are increasingly being discussed.

Established in 1971 and comprising around 1,100 demographers and population scientists, IASP regularly exchanges views on such issues with the support of organizations such as UNFPA, Population Council and Population Foundation of India.