Institute of Public Affairs continues to mislead on immigration levels

Murdoch media and the IPA are once again distorting immigration data to fuel anti-immigration fearmongering ahead of upcoming rallies. Dr Abul Rizvi reports.

PUBLIC AFFAIRS INSTITUTE (IPA), aiding and abetting Murdoch pressmisled the public again immigration levels By attempting to show Net Permanent and Long-Term (NPLT) movements (415,760) in the nine months to the end of September 2025 as almost identical to net migration over the same period.

This is likely aimed at the next round of anti-immigrant rallies later this month, as well as ongoing tensions in the Coalition over immigration policy. IPA is probably a strong supporter. Andrew Hastie’s dog whistles on immigration.

Right at the end of the press release, which the reader is unlikely to follow, the IPA admits:

‘Although “net permanent and long-term arrivals” and “net overseas migration” differ slightly, they remain closely related measures.’

IPA would include this after capture previously misused NPLT data.

But the key message from the author of the IPA press release is this: Daniel WildThis:

‘Increasing net permanent and long-term arrival numbers are now the new norm, with migration patterns indicative of the Federal Government’s “Greater Australia” policy taking full flight.’

The Murdoch press revived the IPA press release with zero fact-checking, adding: title below:

‘Australia records highest ever net immigrant inflow as experts warn of unsustainable growth.’

Instead of such misleading statements, the IPA and Murdoch press could have pointed to any or all of the following:

Very clear warning from ABS to be very careful about how NPLT movement data is used;

Net migration in the March quarter of 2025 was almost 78,000 (or over 40 per cent) less than the NPLT for the March quarter, but the IPA learned nothing from this;

net migration has fallen by over 40 per cent since a peak of over 500,000 in 2022-23, now at around 315,000, a three-year low; And

The increase in net migration in 2022-23 was largely driven by the Coalition Government’s policies on overseas students, which the Labor Government belatedly tightened (but have now relaxed again).

But these points do not fit with the IPA ideology and its desire to fuel anti-immigration fearmongering ahead of the next anti-immigration rallies later this month. These will be headlined by the British anti-immigration agitator tommy robinsonwill speak online (but no longer National Anti-Immigration Senator) Jacinta Price).

There are many important immigration policy issues that the IPA could focus on, including the Labor Government’s reversal of its commitment to long-term migration planning; There is a strong possibility that the Treasury’s 2025-26 and 2026-27 net migration forecasts will not be realized; increasing pressure to increase the permanent migration programme, particularly from Australians’ partners and employer-sponsored practices; and the huge backlog of visa applications on land.

But the IPA prefers to produce sensational headlines to fuel anti-immigration demonstrations and encourage anti-immigration politicians to also misuse NPLT data.

Dr Abul Rizvi Independent Australian columnist and a former Deputy Secretary of the Immigration Service. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.

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