Iran protests could boil over with dire consequences for the West – warning | World | News
Growing protests in Iran risk escalating into a full-scale civil war, handing power to a military dictator and destabilizing the Middle East with serious knock-on effects for the West, a former British defense secretary has warned. Tobias Ellwood, former chairman of the House of Commons Defense Select Committee, said the current unrest represented a brisk “drum beat” of opposition growing from isolated complaints a decade ago through middle-class anger to the women-led Mahsa Amini rebellion of 2022.
Mr. Ellwood highlighted how the regime has historically managed each wave by cracking down hard before making concessions such as the easing of hijab rules. He told the Express: “It accelerates every time, but the regime also gives a little bit. That way it becomes easier. So in a way it was managed, but the balance was never disturbed, because the control, the regime and the size of the armed forces are so overwhelming.”
He continued: “It’s really, really difficult, but then you get a backlash. So we’ll have to see where this goes. I suspect it won’t be a huge turning point as the regime has sort of come together.”
He cautioned against assuming regime change would bring immediate improvement, pointing out that the West often fails to consider the “day after” a revolution.
Mr Ellwood, who is now a Distinguished Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said: “We often just think, ‘The regime is bad; get rid of them.’ But if you get rid of that regime, who’s going to step into those shoes? You can either get a more religious leader or something of the same, or more likely – because the power and the weapons are within the armed forces, the Revolutionary Guard – you end up with a dictator who looks a little like Saddam. Hussein, then a long There will be a civil war.”
The former minister also suggested that external threats, such as Israel’s recent attacks, often trigger a “rally around the flag” effect that strengthens leadership.
Mr. Ellwood noted: “When a country is attacked by Israel, there is a natural rally around it. We saw this with Tito, who was very unpopular in Yugoslavia, but whenever Russia or the Soviet Union showed their strength, they supported him.”
He added: “I see this as the general population testing this regime further. They will restrict, but then they will make more concessions.”
Claiming that Iranians themselves are afraid of the unknown outcome, he pointed out their hesitancy to replace the current status quo with complete chaos.
Mr Ellwood said: “Even in this country, people are very conscious of ‘what’s next’. They ask a lot about what’s going to happen next in Iran, and it can be quite scary. At the moment, if you get at least concessions, you move the dial a little bit, but then the country doesn’t implode.”
He warned: “But if there was a full-scale civil war in Iran, that would be bad for everyone. What will other countries like Israel do then?”
Mr. Ellwood’s warning came as nationwide protests entered a sixth day, sparked by the rial falling to nearly 1.4 million to the dollar and inflation topping 40%. The unrest that started among bazaar merchants in Tehran spread to universities and provincial cities with slogans of “Death to the dictator” directed at Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
At least six people died in the clashes, including Azna and Lordegan, who reportedly opened fire on security forces. While human rights groups reported the death toll was higher, state media confirmed deaths among protesters and Basij militiamen. Arrests have increased despite President Masoud Pezeshkian offering dialogue on “legitimate” economic grievances.
The crisis intensified further yesterday when Mr. Trump posted on Truth Social: “If Iran shoots and brutally kills its customary peaceful protesters, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked, loaded and ready to go.”
The statement echoes Mr. Trump’s warning in 2019 and raises the possibility of American intervention following attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities last year.
Mr. Ellwood concluded: “Look what Israel is doing in Syria even today? There’s an explosion left, right and centre, every time, because no one is watching. No one cares. It’s like the rules have disappeared.”
