US and Israel’s war on Iran is a disaster for the environment, analysis shows | US-Israel war on Iran

The US-Israeli war against Iran is a disaster for the climate, according to an analysis that finds it is depleting the global carbon budget faster than 84 countries combined.

As warplanes, drones and missiles kill thousands of people, destroy infrastructure and turn the Middle East into a massive environmental sacrifice zone, the first analysis of its climate cost has found that the conflict led to 5 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in the first 14 days.

The analysis, shared exclusively with the Guardian, adds a new layer to reports of devastating environmental damage caused by attacks on fossil fuel infrastructure, military bases, civilian areas and ships at sea.

“Every missile strike is another down payment on a hotter, more unstable planet, and none of it makes anyone safer,” said Patrick Bigger, director of research at the Climate and Society Institute and co-author of the analysis.

“Every refinery fire and tanker attack is a reminder that fossil fuel geopolitics are incompatible with a livable planet. This war shows once again that the fastest way to compound the climate crisis is to let fossil fuel interests determine foreign policy.”

While the US-Israel axis claims to have bombed thousands of targets within Iran, Israel also claims to have hit hundreds of targets in Lebanon. Reports from within both countries indicate that infrastructure has been largely destroyed.

Demolished buildings account for the largest element of the estimated carbon cost. Based on reports by the Iranian Red Crescent humanitarian organization that approximately 20,000 civilian buildings were damaged due to the conflict, the analysis estimates total emissions from this sector at 2.4 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e).

Fuel is the second biggest element; US heavy bombers fly from as far away as the west of England to conduct raids on Iran. The analysis estimates that 150 to 270 million liters of fuel were consumed by aircraft and support ships and vehicles in the first 14 days, producing total emissions of 529,000 tCO2e.

One of the most shocking images of the war was the dark clouds and black rain falling over Tehran after Israel bombed four large fuel depots surrounding the city, setting millions of liters of fuel on fire. The analysis estimates that between 2.5 and 5.9 million barrels of oil were burned in this attack and similar attacks (including Iran’s retaliation against its Gulf neighbors), releasing an estimated 1.88 million tCO2e.

In the first 14 days, the USA lost 4 planes, Iran lost 28 planes, 21 navy ships and nearly 300 missile launchers. It is estimated that this destroyed military hardware resulted in embodied carbon emissions of 172,000 tCO2e.

There are also bombs, missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, the use of which is becoming widespread everywhere. Based on claims that the US and Israel bombed more than 6,000 targets inside Iran in the first 14 days, with Iran firing back approximately 1,000 missiles and 2,000 drones, as well as firing an estimated 1,900 interceptors to defend against them, the analysis estimates that the munitions contributed approximately 55,000 tCO2e to emissions.

In total, the first two weeks of the conflict led to emissions of 5,055,016 tCO2e, equivalent to 131,430,416 tCO2e per year; This is about the same as a medium-sized, fossil fuel-intensive economy like Kuwait. But this is also the same as the 84 lowest-emitting countries combined.

Lead study author Fred Otu-Larbi, from the University of Energy and Natural Resources in Ghana, said: “We expect emissions to increase rapidly as the conflict progresses. [at] Which oil facilities are being targeted at an alarming rate.”

He added: “We all have to live with the climate consequences. Nobody knows what the costs are, which is why studies like this are so vital. Burning through Iceland’s annual emissions in two weeks is something we really can’t afford.”

As of June last year, climate scientists estimate that humans could emit greenhouse gases equivalent to 130 billion tonnes of CO2, giving us a 50% chance of stopping the climate from warming by more than 1.5°C. At the current rate of 40 billion tCO2e, this budget will be exhausted by 2028.

The disruption in fossil fuel supplies caused by the war will likely lead to more drilling, Bigger said. “Historically, every U.S. energy shock has been followed by a surge in new drilling, new LNG terminals, and new fossil fuel infrastructure. This war risks leading to another generation of carbon addiction.

“This is not a security war. This is a war on the political economy of fossil fuels, and it is Iranian civilians and working-class communities around the world who are paying the price.”