Labor’s tax deal with the Greens is a crucial win – but its NDIS changes could pay the price | Anthony Albanese

The government scored a crucial victory on Tuesday, securing support for tax changes through the Senate. But the victory may have hurt Labour’s chances of easily passing its other key budget measure – major cost-cutting reforms to the NDIS – through the Senate in August.

Labour’s deal with the Greens sees the NDIS inquiry extended by two months, with plans for new public hearings and more time for the committee process, after even health secretary Mark Butler admitted he had heard “confronting” evidence from the disability community who feared losing access to essential supports. Another eight weeks of public inquiry led by an activist party determined to kill this bill is nothing.

But more than that, the tax deal has infuriated the Coalition, whose support is now critical to passage of the NDIS bill and whose members have become more vocal about their concerns about the changes. While the Coalition has long been at odds with the NDIS’ spiraling price tag, the chances of the reforms ending up friendless in the Senate in August are now non-zero.

At least today the government is satisfied that the negative practices and capital gains tax will be passed. Labor members heading into parliament’s winter recess will return to their communities with a good message to sell: they plan to do more for first home buyers, level the playing field between ordinary workers and the wealthy, and, on a wider meta level, signal that Labor is unhappy with the status quo. Changes to tax assets and wealth more equally on salaries and wages are popular in society (even if taxes on investments and businesses are not).

With One Nation on the march and Pauline Hanson sucking up most of the political oxygen with her populist messages blaming immigrants for economic woes, a big victory like this, proving that the government can help working people and that voters don’t need to burn down their houses to make change, can’t come soon enough for Labour.

But the price to pay for the Greens’ support was the extension of the NDIS investigation. The jury is still out on who will make this bargain work better.

Some Liberals, even those concerned about NDIS changes for disabled Australians, think the Greens are bungling the deal. Expanding the inquiry – regrettable statements that the government has already widely disdained – is a relatively small dividend to support the contentious tax changes Labor is desperate to pass.

The Greens repeatedly stressed on Tuesday that they would never vote for the NDIS bill and want it to be scrapped altogether, but they also pushed for some changes along the way; The minister’s power to change support budgets will be restricted and there will be greater scrutiny of automated decision-making and algorithms.

Could they have won more? Maybe. But the Greens were still hit last term by the perception that they were too opposed to Labour’s housing and environment plans. While the Greens have cleverly used parliamentary tactics and public advocacy to ensure Labor’s agenda is more ambitious, the government has managed to portray them as obstructionists and impeding progress. Subsequent election defeats for leader Adam Bandt and rising star housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather rocked the Greens – and you could understand them being more careful about how much they poked and prodded and pushed their luck in Labor this term.

But expanding the inquiry provides a platform for the Greens and the disability community to continue the fight against the bill. Disability spokesperson Senator Jordan Steele-John claimed that “the momentum behind these cuts has weakened” and vowed to “continue organizing and campaigning”.

The investigation has already heard testimony from participants and experts in this field; The changes have been variously described as “blind and unfair,” “retroactive,” and likely to cause “material harm.”

But judging by Butler and Anthony Albanese’s responses at a press conference, expanding the committee is unlikely to prompt the government to make bigger changes to NDIS reforms.

“Some of the evidence we heard at the inquest…was clearly contradictory,” Butler said; but added that “the government is absolutely convinced that this is the right package.”

When asked by this reporter why so many experts and participants disagreed with him, the minister said: “I understand that this is a difficult change and people are worried about the impact it will have on participants. Our job is to clarify exactly what that impact will be.”

NDIS changes are in Angus Taylor’s hands due to stubborn opposition from the Greens. While Taylor dodged questions about whether he supported a policy of multiculturalism in Australia, he remained coy about how the Coalition would vote on the NDIS. The Opposition leader said he was “concerned about some aspects” of the cuts to participants but reiterated that the Coalition wanted costs to be “sustainable” and “to find an outcome on this as quickly as possible”.

In opposition, Labor has been accused of a tactic we in the Guardian have called “slutty and vile”, raising major concerns about voting for an amendment only at the last minute.

The Liberals’ anger over the tax changes, predictably over what they call a “dirty deal” with the Greens, comes as more within their ranks raise alarm about how the NDIS changes will affect participants. Whether these factors come together in the Coalition’s opposition to NDIS cuts, or whether this is Taylor’s first “son of a bitch” as opposition leader, will be revealed in August.