Iranian supreme leader Khamenei, implacable foe of the US
An angry population struggles under a sanctions-hit economy. Major protests in January were suppressed at the cost of thousands of lives. Israeli and US attacks last year destroyed valuable nuclear and missile facilities. Iran’s regional policy is in shambles as former allies and proxies weaken or disappear.
Faced with the risk of war enveloping the Middle East, the 86-year-old’s fierce loyalty to the Islamic Republic, his implacable hostility to the West and his cunning in initiating negotiations will shape the fate of the region.
PROTECTION OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES
Already this year, he ordered the deadliest crackdown since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, prompting security forces to chant “Death to the dictator!” He said the protesters “should be put in their place” before opening fire on demonstrators chanting the slogan.
US President Donald Trump’s threats to bomb Iran again come just months after Khamenei was forced into hiding last June due to attacks that left scores of his close friends and Revolutionary Guard commanders dead.
This attack was one of many indirect consequences of the Iranian-backed Palestinian group Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023; This attack not only triggered the war in Gaza, but also encouraged Israel to beat up Tehran’s other regional proxies. With the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the overthrow of Bashar Assad in Syria, Khamenei’s influence in the Middle East was disrupted. Now it faces U.S. demands that Iran give up its ballistic missile arsenal, its best remaining strategic lever.
Iran has even offered apparent concessions on its nuclear program, which it says is entirely civilian but is seen by the West and Israel as a path to the atomic bomb.
But Khamenei refuses to even discuss giving up the missiles, which he sees as Iran’s only remaining deterrent against Israeli attack; This is a sign of intransigence that could itself invite US airstrikes.
As the US military build-up intensifies, Khamenei’s calculations will be based on a character shaped by the revolution, years of turmoil, the war with Iraq, decades of conflict with the US, and the ruthless accumulation of power.
Khamenei has ruled the country since 1989 and has ultimate authority over all branches of government, the military and the judiciary.
While elected officials manage day-to-day affairs, no major policy—especially those involving the United States—proceeds without his express approval; Khamenei’s mastery of Iran’s complex system of religious rule combined with limited democracy ensures that no other group can challenge his decisions.
AS A LEADER, KHAMENEY WAS FOR A TIME FAR FROM HEIGHT
Khamenei was often dismissed early in his rule as weak and an unlikely successor to the charismatic Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the late founder of the Islamic Republic.
Khamenei, who could not reach the rank of religious Ayatollah when he was appointed as the Religious Leader, had difficulty in exercising power through religious authority, as predicted by the theocratic system.
After long struggling to step out of his mentor’s shadow, he finally established himself by creating a formidable security apparatus dedicated solely to himself.
Khamenei does not trust the West, especially the United States, which he accuses of trying to overthrow him.
In a typically combative speech following protests in January, he blamed Trump for the unrest, saying: “We hold the president of the United States guilty of the losses, damage and slander he has inflicted on the Iranian nation.”
But despite his ideological rigidity, he showed a willingness to yield when the survival of the Islamic Republic was at stake.
First articulated by Khamenei in 2013, the concept of “heroic flexibility” allows for tactical concessions to advance his goals, reflecting Khomeini’s choice in 1988 to accept a ceasefire after eight years of war with Iraq.
A similar moment was Khamenei’s cautious approval of the nuclear agreement Iran signed with six world powers in 2015; because he calculated that easing sanctions was necessary to stabilize the economy and strengthen his grip on power.
During his first term in 2018, Trump abandoned the 2015 deal and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran. Tehran reacted by gradually violating all agreed-upon restrictions on its nuclear program.
SADAK SECURITY STRUCTURE IS THE KEY TO KHAMENEY’S POWER
During times of increased repression, Khamenei repeatedly called on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij, a paramilitary force of hundreds of thousands of volunteers, to silence dissidents.
They were the ones who suppressed the protests that broke out over allegations of voter fraud after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was re-elected as president in 2009.
In 2022, Khamenei was equally brutal in arresting, imprisoning or executing protesters angered by the death in custody of young Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini.
It was again the Guard and the Basij who suppressed the last round of protests in January.
His power also owes much to the interstate financial empire known as Setad, which is under Khamenei’s direct control. Worth tens of billions of dollars, it grew greatly during his rule, with billions of dollars invested in the Revolutionary Guard.
Scholars outside Iran paint a picture of a secret ideologue who fears treason; An anxiety fueled by an assassination attempt in June 1981 with a bomb hidden in a tape recorder that paralyzed his right arm.
According to his official biography, Khamenei was subjected to severe torture in 1963, at the age of 24, while serving the first of many terms in prison for his political activities under the Shah’s rule.
As deputy defense minister after the revolution, Khamenei became close to the Guard during the 1980-88 war with Iraq, which claimed a million lives on both sides.
He won the presidency with Khomeini’s support, but when the religious leader died, he was a surprise choice as successor, lacking both popular appeal and superior clerics.
Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said the “accident of history” was “an initially weak president turned into a weak religious leader into one of the five most powerful Iranians of the last 100 years.”
