Iran’s control creates economic pain and upends US-Israeli war planning
Mark Mazzetti, Adam Entous And Julian E. Barnes
The United States and Israel launched a war against Iran, claiming that this would be the ultimate deterrent against future attacks if Iran ever acquired nuclear weapons.
It turns out that Iran already has a deterrent feature: its geography.
Iran’s decision to expand its control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply flows, has led to global economic hardship in the form of high prices for oil, fertilizer and other staples.
This upended war plans in the United States and Israel, where officials had to devise military options to free the strait from Iranian control.
The US-Israeli war significantly damaged Iran’s leadership structure, larger naval ships, and missile production facilities, but did little to restrict Iran’s ability to control the strait.
Iran could thus emerge from the conflict with a plan that would allow its rigid theocratic government to keep its enemies at bay, regardless of any restrictions on its nuclear program.
“Everyone now knows that in the event of a conflict in the future, the first thing in the Iranian textbook would be to close the strait,” said Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence agency and now a member of the Atlantic Council. “You can’t beat geography.”
President Donald Trump said in several social media posts on Friday that the strait, which he called the “Strait of Iran” in one post, was “wide open” to ships. Iran’s foreign minister also made a similar statement. But on Saturday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said the waterway remained closed, citing disagreements between the Iranian military and civilians on the issue during negotiations to end the war.
While the presence of naval mines is enough to intimidate commercial shipping, Iran retains much more precise means of control: attack aircraft and short-range missiles. U.S. military and intelligence officials estimate that after weeks of fighting, Iran still has about 40 percent of its attack drone arsenal and more than 60 percent of its missile launchers; This is more than enough to hold ships hostage in the Strait of Hormuz in the future.
One of the main goals of the US-led military operation against Iran is to reopen the strait, which was open when the war began. This is a risky situation for the United States, and its enemies have realized it.
Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and deputy chairman of the country’s security council, wrote on social media last week: “It is unclear how the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran will turn out. But one thing is certain: Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. It is called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible.”
Iran’s control of the strait forced Trump to announce his own naval blockade, and this week the U.S. Navy began forcing cargo ships into Iranian ports after passing through the waterway.
Iran responded with anger but also mockery. In response to Trump’s move, an Iranian diplomatic post that has been posting sarcastic messages throughout the war wrote on social platform X: “The Strait of Hormuz is not social media. If someone blocks you, you can’t block them.”
The dispute over the Strait has been the focus of numerous AI-generated videos depicting American and Israeli officials as Lego characters.
Still, the impact of the US blockade was real. Maritime trade accounts for roughly 90 percent of Iran’s economic output – about US$340 million ($475 million) per day – and that flow has largely ground to a halt in recent days.
Iran sees the blockade as an act of war and has threatened to attack. But so far, the United States has not attempted to reduce Iran’s dominance over the strait during the current ceasefire once the conflict finally ends.
“Both countries may be seeing that there is a real window for negotiations” and may not want to escalate the conflict at this time, retired Adm. Kevin Donegan, who once commanded the U.S. Navy fleet responsible for the Middle East, said at a seminar hosted by the Middle East Institute this week.
Iran had previously tried to block the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf with mines during the conflict with Iraq in the 1980s. But mine warfare is dangerous, and decades later Iran has effectively used missile and drone technology to threaten both commercial and military maritime traffic.
While the US and Israeli war has significantly damaged Iran’s weapons production capacity, Iran has retained enough of its missiles, launchers and unidirectional attack drones to put shipping in the strait at risk.
U.S. intelligence and military estimates vary, but multiple officials have said Iran has about 40 percent of its pre-war drone arsenal. These drones have proven to be a powerful deterrent. Although they can be easily hit by US warships, commercial tankers have little defense.
Iran also has an abundance of missiles and missile launchers. At the time of the ceasefire, Iran had access to about half of the missile launchers. In the days immediately following, he increased his launcher stockpile to about 60 percent of its prewar level by excavating nearly 100 systems buried inside caves and bunkers.
Iran is also digging up its missile supplies, buried in the rubble of U.S. attacks on its bunkers and warehouses. According to some American estimates, once this work is completed, Iran could recover 70 percent of its pre-war arsenal.
Officials state that counts of Iran’s weapons stockpiles are not accurate. Intelligence assessments provide a broad view of how much power Iran has.
But although estimates of Iran’s missile stockpiles vary, there is consensus among officials that Iran has enough weapons to intercept future shipments.
The Iranian government chose not to block the Strait of Hormuz last June, when Israel launched a military campaign that eventually joined the United States to strike deeply buried nuclear sites.
Former Israeli official Citrinowicz said that this decision probably reflects the cautious approach of Iran’s religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei may have been concerned that closing the strait could prompt other countries to join military action against Iran.
Khamenei was killed on the first day of the current war; This signaled to Iranian officials that America’s and Israel’s goals in this conflict were much more far-reaching.
Citrinowicz said Iran “viewed the June war as an Israeli war aimed at its own strategic goals.” “This is a war for regime change.”
This article was first published on: New York Times.
