Iran’s missiles can hit Britain—and only Nato’s shield protects us | UK | News

Senior military officials reportedly believe Iran now has the theoretical capacity to strike Britain but insist they have confidence in NATO defenses to protect the country.

The question came to the fore after Israel claimed that Tehran had fired two ballistic missiles at the joint UK-US base on Diego Garcia, a remote atoll in the Indian Ocean 3,800 km from Iranian territory. The first Iranian rocket was reportedly shot down by a missile launched from an American warship sometime between Thursday night and Friday. The second ran out of fuel after traveling 3,990 miles and crashed into the ocean about 400 miles from the island, which was manned by about 100 British service personnel.

The Express reported on Sunday how Israeli chief of staff Eyal Zamir used the incident to make a broader point about the range of Iran’s weapons.

“Their range extends to European capitals; Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range,” he said.

Hurremshahr question

According to the Times, analysts determined that the most likely weapon used in the Diego Garcia attack was the Khorramshahr-4. According to Iran’s stated specifications, the missile carries a maximum range of 2,000 km when equipped with a standard 1.5-ton warhead; this is a payload heavy enough to flatten the target on impact, released from the main body during the terminal phase of flight for maximum precision.

The picture changes significantly when the weight of the warhead decreases. Dr. is a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. Sidharth Kaushal briefed the Times on the numbers: Reduce the payload to between 450 kg and 550 kg and the effective range extends to around 4,000 km. From a launch site in north-east Iran, this would put parts of the UK within theoretical striking distance. Even at such a low weight, the warhead could maintain enough destructive power to destroy a building.

Geography is instructive. RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, which currently serves as a forward operating base from which US bombers launch attacks on Iran, is located approximately 4,350 km from Tehran.

Iran’s civilian space program is also a source of concern. The Qaem-105 rocket has been considered by analysts for years to have almost certainly been designed with a secondary military application in mind, although no evidence has been made public that it was ever deployed as a ballistic missile.

Why does an attack on Britain seem unlikely?

Military sources speaking to the Times emphasize that, from a theoretical perspective, any Iranian missile targeting Britain would face an extremely hostile passage. One source described a successful hit on London as “very unlikely”, explaining: “It would have to fly a long distance over multiple air defense networks and be very accurate.”

The Royal Navy’s six Type-45 destroyers provide some degree of protection but are limited to intercepting medium-range ballistic missiles; they were not built to handle the kind of intercontinental distance-traveling weapons Iran would need to deploy. Britain’s primary protection against this class of threat comes from its membership in NATO’s Ballistic Missile Defense system.

Rusi’s director of military science, Matthew Savill, said in the report: “If launched towards the UK, NATO’s BMD is designed for that. The UK is not actually vulnerable to a threat from Iran.”

Shield in detail

BMD architecture is based on many interlocking components. Two Aegis Ashore batteries anchor the system on the European continent; the first is positioned in northern Poland, directed towards the continent and the Baltic Sea, and capable of firing short- to medium-range ballistic missiles; the second is in Deveselu in southern Romania. Approximately 200 military personnel serve in each region.

Four US Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, which are more capable air defense platforms than their Royal Navy counterparts, operate from Rota in Spain as a mobile component of the shield. The early warning radar installation, located in Kürecik in southeastern Türkiye, provides the detection layer that feeds targeting data to the rest of the network. Some fighter jets can also engage ballistic missiles, but this is only possible during the initial boost phase after launch.

Expert judgment

Dr Kaushal reportedly explained why the theoretical threat remains limited in practical terms.

“A missile fired over 4,000km probably has a pretty high circular error, which means you’ll need quite a few to hit something in particular. The lighter payload also means reciprocal impact for range.”

“So although it is theoretically possible [to hit Britain]”This could be a case of a limited capability firing a small, inaccurate payload over a well-defended orbit.”