Iran’s stranglehold on Strait of Hormuz loosens as Gulf Arab oil reaches market
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iranian drowning Strait of Hormuz It may be easing, and its own oil problems now appear to be escalating.
The critical strait at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies once passed, has been effectively closed by Iranian attacks on shipping since the war began in February. Iran threatens to attack even if most of its navy is sunk Shippers and insurers hesitate to send ships Through the Bosphorus. The resulting energy crisis increased global inflation. including USA
But the situation seems to be changing. Analysts say more oil is coming to market from Gulf Arab states with the help of the US military. WE President Donald Trump He says a “secret mission” to provide surveillance on ships recovered more than 100 million barrels of crude oil. Meanwhile, American forces enforcing the blockade have repeatedly fired on or intercepted ships linked to Iran’s sanctioned oil trade; this affected the country’s ability to obtain the currency it needed.
Oil flows remain below the 15 million barrels per day that once came through the strait. Therefore, it will not be able to saturate the global energy market, especially as countries reduce their reserves. These were used to somewhat cushion the blow to the world’s supply.
However, if the flow can be sustained or accelerated, the calculation of the crisis may change. Iran’s talent Harming the world economy with its control of the Bosphorus This was its greatest advantage, giving it confidence that it could outlast the United States, even though the war and the American blockade had severely damaged its economy.
Iran is increasingly feeling the pressure. “We are currently under sanctions and our routes are blocked. We are facing a difficult test,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a speech broadcast live on state television on Wednesday. “Governing the country under the current conditions is not an easy task, given the shortages we face, the unrest we experience, and the ongoing problems.”
Still, the course of the conflict remains highly uncertain. This week saw intense exchanges of fire between Iran, Israel and the United States for days. Trump threatened to seize on Thursday Kharg Island’s oil export terminal They bombed the Islamic Republic even more heavily, then suddenly withdrew, once again claiming a breakthrough in negotiations to end the war.
‘Secret mission’ made public
Opening the strait and ensuring the flow of oil was an important priority for Trump; but at times he seemed to be searching for ways to achieve this. After initially telling the allied countries that the strait was not America’s issue and ” go get your own oil“Trump started threatening to do anything up to destruction” a whole civilization “To get the tankers back out of the waterway.
It seems that increased confidence in US military support and increased need for supplies in recent weeks have persuaded shippers to risk crossing the strait using covert methods.
Most likely, the ships passed by going “dark”, that is, they turned off their tracking systems. TankerTrackers.com, a website that tracks maritime oil trade, said it also saw Gulf Arab states making ship-to-ship transfers last weekend trying to disguise the source of crude oil and pass through the strait undetected by Iran. This is probably happening with the support of the American military.
Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler, said Kpler, a firm that monitors commodity markets, has been tracking approximately 96 million barrels of non-Iranian crude oil exports from the region since the beginning of May, either through the strait or through export options in the Gulf of Oman.
Including cargoes still being loaded, that figure would likely exceed 100 million barrels, he said, which is “largely consistent with Trump’s claim.”
Trump gave the 100 million barrel figure in online posts Wednesday, saying more than 200 ships had passed through the strait thanks to a “secret mission” to support tankers and other ships.
“This highly successful effort is due to the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, NOT Iran,” Trump wrote.
Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of maritime data firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence, said US forces were conducting “a limited surveillance operation using autonomous vehicles, aircraft and drone escorts to help the strait pass near the Omani coast in the southern part of the strait.”
US Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopter crashed “He was probably part of that operation,” he said in an online webinar on Thursday, after he was allegedly shot down by an Iranian drone off the coast of Oman this week.
Iran said the strait was closed after talks this week in which the United States launched two days of airstrikes on Iran and Iran launched retaliatory strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, which host American troops. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted on Wednesday that the strait is not an international waterway, even though it is considered the only waterway by the world.
US blockade squeezes Iran’s oil industry
While the USA pushes the tankers of the Gulf Arab countries out, it continues to prevent Iranians from entering and exiting the Bosphorus. This includes opening fire on ships to stop them. Attack that killed three Indian sailors on Wednesday.
Unable to bring its oil to market, Iran is increasing onshore storage and using dozens of tankers off the coast of Kharg Island to store crude oil. Iran has also apparently had to slow down or stop its production It warns that finding oil in some wells can be dangerous because old wells, like the one Iran has, may not be restarted after being stopped.
Energy company Wood Mackenzie believes Iran’s production has fallen by 800,000 barrels per day since the American blockade began. Meanwhile, the amount stored onshore is estimated at 69 million barrels; this is the highest level since Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign in 2020.
“The rising economic costs of a decline in production, export restrictions and shrinking storage capacity are increasing pressure on Tehran to seek a diplomatic solution,” said Wood Mackenzie’s Alexandre Araman. “For Iran, even a temporary diplomatic breakthrough could provide immediate relief.”
Oil prices have remained below $100 a barrel, in part because of Trump’s deal promises and as other countries tap reserves and tighten oil use. Seaborne crude oil imports from China, long a major buyer of Iranian-sanctioned oil, fell to 6.8 million barrels per day in May, the lowest level since October 2016, according to Kpler.
This bought Trump and the global economy some more time, but a deal will likely need to be reached soon to prevent the energy crisis from getting serious in the coming months.
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Associated Press writers Chan Ho-him in Hong Kong and Amir Vahdat in Tehran, Iran contributed to this report.
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EDITOR’S NOTE — Jon GambrellThe Associated Press’ Gulf and Iran news director has covered news from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other regions in the Middle East, and the world more broadly since joining the AP in 2006. David McHugh He is an experienced business writer for the AP in Frankfurt, Germany.
