Is a ‘super’ El Niño coming this summer, and how could it impact weather?
(NewsNation) — Federal officials say the climate phenomenon known as El Niño is increasingly likely to occur this summer; Some predictions suggest that this situation will increase further. on the historically strong path.
El Niño is a warming of the ocean surface in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean. United States Geological Survey. It occurs every two to seven years and affects weather worldwide.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration El Niño has a roughly 60% chance of occurring between May and July of this year, and that chance increases to 90% between August and October.
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NOAA announced earlier this month La Niña, a contrasting weather phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures, has officially been declared over.
Could ‘Super El Niño’ be coming?
“super El Niño” condition occurs when temperatures rise at least 2.0°C above normal. Matthew SittelAssistant state climate scientist at Kansas State University.
While this level of El Niño is rare (only four since 1950), NOAA says there’s about a 50% chance that this year’s El Niño will develop into a “strong” or “very strong” level. last super El Niño It occurred in 2015 and lasted until 2016.
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Federal officials note that a stronger El Niño does not necessarily mean more extreme weather.
“Stronger events do not always mean greater weather and climate impacts,” according to NOAA. “Stronger events increase the likelihood that certain effects will occur.”
How will El Niño affect the United States in 2026?
The effects of El Niño are generally felt in the United States during the cooler months between October and May. According to NOAA.
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The Super El Niño forecast means the phenomenon’s traditional weather effects may occur, such as warm, dry winter weather in the northern half of the country and a wetter, colder winter in the southern states. Alix Martichoux of Nexstar reports.
But Martichoux added that if El Niño begins in the summer, as forecasters expect, temperatures could rise significantly and contribute to heat waves before winter arrives. This comes on the heels of many states’ record-breaking spring quarters. all-time heat records.
A strong El Niño could also lead to a milder hurricane season in the Atlantic. Andy Hazelton, assistant scientist at CIMAS University in Miami. guessed it might be “Quietest season since 2015”
Nexstar’s Alix Martichoux and Jeremy Tanner contributed to this report.
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