Government shutdown brings political reckoning for both parties in Congress

The showdown is approaching.

Or shall we say “reckoning”?

And whether the government reopens soon or remains closed, they are coming.

If the government remains closed, voters will likely torch both parties for not being able to reach an agreement. Air traffic delays are increasing. These problems become more intense as we get closer to Thanksgiving and Christmas. For federal employees, this means multiple missed paychecks, stress, economic consequences, and a lack of SNAP benefits for those in need.

SCHUMER, DEMS ANNOUNCED ALTERNATIVE CLOSURE PLAN, REQUESTED OBAMACARE SUBSCRIPTIONS TO BE EXTENDED BY ONE YEAR

Some of these concerns would go away if lawmakers quickly addressed the closure. However, if the closure continues until November, there will be a reckoning.

There will probably be special showdowns for both political parties.

For Republicans, it’s resistance from GOP leaders to an increase in health care subsidies. Yes. The GOP makes a compelling argument that health care subsidies are only necessary because Obamacare is a problem and health care prices are skyrocketing. So Republicans are fighting against Obamacare again.

In fact, a complete government shutdown is not about spending levels and appropriations. This is a retrial of the landmark law passed in 2010 under President Obama. And Republicans have failed at nearly every turn, despite numerous campaign promises and dozens of efforts to kill the law over a six-year period.

Despite the problems with Obamacare, Democrats have taken into account the public’s concerns about health care costs and attributed it to government funding. Democrats appear to be the party trying to fix the problem as premiums soar. And Republicans are inactive on this issue, even though they have promised to achieve this goal. They even support efforts to criticize Obamacare, as they did when Congress passed the law in 2010.

Republicans are clinging to the concept that subsidies “pump money into insurance companies,” as Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., told Fox. Lankford also called Obamacare beneficiaries a “select group.” It reaches approximately 24 million people. That’s seven percent of the U.S. population. Maybe this burns the GOP politically. Maybe not.

A big showdown is coming for the Democrats, too.

It’s possible that a coalition of Democratic senators could break ties with the Democratic Party and support a new GOP plan to temporarily reopen the government. It doesn’t say anywhere that Democrats who shut down health care are guaranteed to get a result from Obamacare subsidies. Yes, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R.S.D.) have said they will address healthcare once the government reopens. But this isn’t necessarily a fix.

TRUMP urges Senate Republicans to divert funds from Obamacare-backed insurance companies and pay Americans directly

So Democrats are outraged.

So there’s a distinct possibility that Democrats will refuse to fund the government in order to get concessions from Obamacare subsidies and leave empty-handed.

Such an outcome would ignite a destructive storm within the Democratic Party. Progressives felt Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (DY) was holding them back in March, when he and a squadron of other Democrats helped the GOP run a filibuster to avoid a shutdown.

It’s doubtful Schumer will help this time. But Senate Republicans hope to persuade enough Democrats to overcome the filibuster in a pending test vote and then fund the government by the end of January.

This is the Democrats’ calculation.

There are no results regarding health. And having members of their own party install the screws.

Again.

Progressives will be paralyzed. And House Democrats will — not so secretly — be angry with Senate Democrats.

President Donald Trump arrives at an election night vigil party at the Palm Beach Convention Center on Wednesday, November 6, 2024 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Evan Vucci/AP)

The Senate’s test vote on the new GOP proposal could come as early as Sunday evening. The revised package would also fund the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Veterans Affairs, as well as Congress, through September 30, 2026.

Fox was told that Republicans believe they are within range of persuading Democrats who have sweated the shutdown to join them.

Fox was told that air traffic control and flight delays added to Democrats’ consternation.

However, Senate GOP leadership is believed to be reluctant to force a vote without guarantees it can break a filibuster on the reworked spending bill. The last thing the Senate needs is a failed procedural vote after repeated failed test votes over the past six weeks.

AS THE SHUTDOWN ENTERS DAY 39, REPUBLICANS TURN THEIR ATTENTION TO IMPACTING OBAMACARE

Let’s try timing for a moment:

If the Senate breaks the filibuster late Sunday, it’s doubtful the chamber will take a final vote on the package until Monday or Tuesday, according to the book. But Fox was told there was a distinct possibility Democrats could turn back the clock to speed up the process to quickly reopen the government. Likewise, angry liberal senators may try to beat the house’s clock and change the bill to their liking, possibly with Obamacare provisions.

The Senate must break one more filibuster to finish the bill. Then the final pass is made. Only a simple majority is needed for this. And even if some Democrats vote to block the filibuster, they may not end up supporting the basic plan. But that’s fine if GOP senators provide the necessary votes.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (DY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (DY) update reporters after face-to-face meetings with President Donald Trump and Republican leaders in Washington, Monday, September 29, 2025. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)

Then it’s the Parliament’s turn. The Parliament’s attitude towards this law is unclear. But it’s hard to believe that most Republicans won’t accept this deal. Reps. Tom Suozzi, DY, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash. and Jared Golden, D-Maine, are among moderate Democrats who could vote yes if the GOP loses a few votes. Golden was the only House Democrat to vote for the former stopgap spending bill on Friday, Sept. 19. Golden has since announced his retirement.

Another big question:

Will the House choose Adelita Grijalva, D-Ariz., before or after voting? Democrats will bray if Johnson doesn’t have Grijalva sworn in before a possible House vote

And as we said, it’s always about math.

Having taken the oath, Grijalva reached 433 members in the Parliament with two vacant seats. The breakdown is 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats. That means the GOP can only lose two votes before needing help from Democrats.

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Regardless, the House wouldn’t be back until at least the middle of next week. It depends on how quickly the Senate can move, whether it has the votes to eliminate the filibuster, and what happens to the Obamacare question.

This is all uncertain after 39 days of government shutdown.

And the only certainty is a political showdown on both sides.