Is St Kilda’s spending spree paying off? The numbers are in
Updated ,first published
Your daily football news package in today’s AFL Briefing:
- Essendon have the toughest fixtures in the second half of the season, according to Champion Data.
- St Kilda’s off-season recruiting spree should put them in a good position to break into the top 10, but so far it has been a struggle.
St Kilda appear to have failed to improve this year despite their headline-grabbing off-season spending spree.
The Saints sit in 12th place with a 5-7 win-loss record; The same return as this time last season. However, they have a 10 percent better percentage (102.3); That’s healthier than the ninth-placed Magpies and even the seventh-placed Western Bulldogs, who scored goals for fun last year.
They are averaging over seven points per game this season (89.6) more than last season and although key defender and co-captain Callum Wilkie needs more help they have tightened up the defense a bit and conceded an average of 87.6 points per game. However, they are ranked 10th and ninth respectively in these categories, which shows why they remain in the middle of the table.
They have fallen slightly in terms of turnover difference, but more importantly, they have risen from 10th to fourth in terms of open field points difference. However, a win against a top-10 Greater Western Sydney team sums up their story.
As one close league observer noted Monday, for all the Blues’ problems, they are just one win behind the Saints. So are the rebuilding West Coast Eagles.
“I didn’t expect them to be contenders this year,” North Melbourne dual premiership player and leading commentator David King told SEN.
“I think teams around the target where St Kilda are are finding it really difficult to beat the top four, top six teams. “The next progression is to win one in every three, then win one in every two and then go in the hunt.
“I think they’re miles away from that. I never thought of them as relays this year, I never had them in the top four to six teams. So they’re where they are right now because they’re not quite there.”
The multi-million dollar summer additions of Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Sam Flanders and Liam Ryan were aimed at taking the Saints into September, perhaps even into the top six, but certainly at least into one of the bottom rungs of the finals system, currently in the top 10, while splashing cash on Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to make her the highest-earning player in the tournament.
They faced a troubled schedule to open the season and injuries didn’t help. Five interstate trips, including back-to-back games in Adelaide, were not ideal, but the Saints beat Port Adelaide and were unlucky to topple Adelaide.
They also faced Gold Coast in the humid atmosphere of Darwin and are currently in the middle of a run of matches against premiership favorites Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney.
They missed the run and courage of Wanganeen-Milera (calf), who is about to return this week; Mitch Owens (calf) and Liam Ryan (calf) could also face the Swans. Flanders (Achilles tendon tear) will be out for the rest of the season. Small forward Jack Higgins (knee) was also missed.
De Koning continues to differ. The athletic drifter, who has a contract worth $1.7 million per season, is not the game-winner some expected. However, coach Ross Lyon was defensive after last Thursday’s painful defeat against Hawthorn, pointing out that De Koning was top of the league in scoring involvement. He scored two goals against the Hawks.
“It’s going to continue to grow and grow; it takes some time to get people on board with your program,” Lyon said.
Lyon persisted until defeat to the Crows left his team at 2-4 and said the Saints were making progress.
The absence of key striker Max King continues to sting. He is one of the competition’s best chances but the Saints are confident better days lie ahead.
The versatile Silvagni scored three goals when he stepped up against the Hawks.
Showing off the hard work in development. Darcy Wilson, Max Hall, Mattaes Phillipou and Hugo Garcia made strong progress; The Saints were desperate to keep hold of the off-contract Wilson, who was attracting significant interest elsewhere.
Lyon knows the AFL is a tough win-lose business. And the challenges will keep coming.
Champion Data says they’ve had the sixth toughest run through September, giving supporters and detractors ammunition to express their opposing views. It’s shaping up to be a fascinating few months, with Lyon under contract until the end of 2027.
Will the remainder of this season determine whether the Saints extend him a contract next summer? Which raises another question: Is assistant Corey Enright a potential successor?
“We’ve played a lot of games but we haven’t gotten over the line yet,” Lyon said.
“To borrow the term, we’re pounding the rocks, stacking up, intercounty, going up against quality, beating some of the teams around us pretty well… but we need to improve. That suits me, it’s not an understatement.”
Home run ladder: The path ahead for your team – from hardest to easiest
Essendon have the toughest fixtures of the 18 clubs for the remainder of the season, leaving interim coach Dean Solomon facing an uphill battle to prove his credentials if he decides to apply for the job.
The Bombers have the toughest game in the second half of the season, while Hawthorn and Carlton are the easiest team to run home with, according to Champion Data, which assesses the difficulty of each club’s home run by giving the opposition a weighting based on each team’s percentage.
Solomon’s opening game as interim coach on Sunday night did not result in a Carlton-like surge; The Bombers lost by five goals to the West Coast Eagles in Perth and have just one win in their last 25 games.
The Bombers, under interim coach Josh Fraser after parting ways with Michael Voss, play the Blues, who have won three in a row at the MCG on King’s Birthday Eve, then bid farewell and then play North Melbourne, St Kilda, Brisbane at the ‘Gabba, the Giants and Hawthorn before the end of July.
Nine of Essendon’s last 10 matches have been against teams seeking the title or final under the new top 10 model. Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney and Fremantle are in the top five of teams facing the toughest period of September.
Which teams have the toughest run at home?
(Ordered from most difficult to easiest)
- Essendon
- Gold Coast
- Port Adelaide
- GWS
- Fremantle
- St Kilda
- Western Bulldogs
- Sydney Swans
- Melbourne
- Richmond
- Adelaide Crows
- North Melbourne
- West Coast
- Brisbane Lions
- Geelong
- collingwood
- Carlton
- Hawthorn
Source: Champion Data.
Essendon great Matthew Lloyd says he does not expect his former premiership team-mate Solomon to replace Brad Scott, who was sacked last Tuesday with 18 months left on his contract.
“It’s rare for the interim coach to get the job, I know we’ve seen that before, if they can run away, so he’s got to take a real role to get that job otherwise it goes elsewhere,” Lloyd told the AFL website.
“He’s the perfect guy at the moment because he’s so selfless, he’s such an Essendon man. He’s just doing the right thing for the club at the moment. I’m sure he’ll be delighted if he gets the job, but I’m sure that’s not on his mind at the moment.”
Hours after Scott’s departure, Hird put his hand up to return to Essendon as manager, 11 years after leaving the club.
An industry source with knowledge of events at Tullamarine, speaking anonymously as the process is not yet complete, said Hird would endorse Solomon as a potential Essendon senior coach not only for his coaching but also for his ability to unite the club.
The same industry sources said Solomon might be open to becoming his assistant coach if Hird fails.
Solomon has not yet announced whether he will pursue the senior role. He tried to dodge questions about Hird’s possible return following Sunday night’s defeat.
“I turned off all my social media to be honest… I had to control what I can control, focus on what I can focus on and that means leading this club, these staff and players in the short term,” Solomon said.
“So I don’t think it’s going to have any impact on me. I can’t really speak for the players but I’m sure we’re all locked in on what we need to do at the moment.”
While some potential candidates are under fire until the Bombers announce whether Hird is a candidate, former Sydney premiership coach John Longmire emerges as an intriguing man.
The Blues, who announced last week that a subcommittee had been formed to find Voss’ replacement, look set to rule out Longmire as well.
Lloyd said it was important for the Bombers to conduct an open process that included all interested candidates.
“You just hope that the other people they want to interview are also willing to interview. That’s what you hope for, that’s the board’s process. It’s going to be a big few weeks for them,” he said.
Hird is a friend and premiership teammate of Solomon and has long respected his coaching and development abilities.
Welsh and CEO Tim Roberts are trying to establish a coaching subcommittee with job criteria to follow.
Co-host Jimmy Bartel didn’t ask Hird about his coaching dreams. Football Oven Nine owns this tag after the Bombers lost to the Eagles. But he backed Solomon to leave a “mark” in Sunday’s clash with the Blues.
“I think it’s been tough going intercounty, obviously Dean got the job four days ago. It’s quite difficult to make a lot of changes, he’s left two assistant coaches on him and he’s lost five of your most experienced players.” [to injuries]“There was a ridiculous amount of games that came out,” Hird said.
Assistant coach Ben Jacobs and psychologist Ben Robbins resigned Friday out of loyalty to Scott.
“So it’s not their best performance but hopefully Dean, he’s got a whole week to prepare for the Carlton game, he can put some things together, put together a game plan, get his name in the team and good luck to him next week,” Hird said.
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Jon Pierik is a sports reporter for The Age. He covers the AFL and has won awards for his cricket and basketball writing.Connect with: X or email.
