Is the U.S. invading Venezuela? Or trying to make a deal?

CARACAS, Venezuela — On the surface, the United States appears closer than ever to launching a military campaign to remove President Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela.

President Trump said he authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations inside the Caribbean nation and massed troops, fighter jets and warships just off the coastline.

US soldiers in the area were prohibited from taking Thanksgiving leave. Airlines canceled flights to Venezuela after the Federal Aviation Administration warned of a “potentially hazardous situation” there. And on Monday, the White House officially designated Maduro as a member of an international terrorist group.

In the country’s capital, Caracas, there is a palpable sense of anxiety with each new bellicose statement, especially from Washington.

“People are very nervous,” said Rosa María López, 47, a podiatrist and mother of two. “Nobody says anything because they’re afraid though.”

The Pentagon has presented Trump with a number of military options and is said to be weighing his options, a source familiar with the matter told The Times. Still, its plans for Venezuela remain unclear.

While Trump warned of possible military action, he also constantly raised the possibility of negotiations, saying at one point that he would “probably talk” to Maduro.

“I’m not ruling anything out,” Trump said last week.

Now people in both the US and Venezuela are wondering: Is the US military buildup in the Caribbean the beginning of an invasion or a bluff aimed at pressuring Maduro to make a deal?

Members of the White House, especially Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are desperate to unseat Maduro, a leftist autocrat whom the United States does not recognize as the legitimately elected president of Venezuela.

But other members of Trump’s team appear more determined to secure access to Venezuela’s oil riches and keep them away from China and Russia, rather than pushing for regime change. Parties in this camp may be willing to accept a deal with Venezuela that does not require Maduro’s departure and a democratic transition plan.

Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based research group, said months of U.S. sabre-rattling against Maduro’s government without any direct military action may be weakening the Americans’ negotiating position. “This operation has a psychological dimension and is starting to lose credibility,” he said. “I fear that the regime thinks it is over the worst of US pressure.”

Maduro insists he is open to dialogue. “Anyone in the United States who wants to talk to Venezuela can do so,” he said this week. “We cannot allow the bombing and murder of a Christian people, the people of Venezuela.”

Speaking at the presidential palace in Caracas on Friday, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro insisted he was open to dialogue with the United States.

(Cristian Hernandez / Associated Press)

For years, he has rejected efforts to remove him from office despite punitive US sanctions, domestic protests against his administration and various attacks during the first Trump administration, which Caracas regards as a coup attempt. Experts say there is no evidence that Trump’s troop buildup or attacks on alleged drug traffickers off Venezuela’s coast have weakened Maduro’s support among the military or other hard-line supporters.

Meanwhile, Venezuela tried to use the possibility of a US invasion to increase support within the country.

Senior officials here on Monday took aim at the State Department. assignment The claim that the Venezuelan drug cartel is a foreign terrorist group. Rubio claims that the Cartel de los Soles is “run by Nicolás Maduro and other high-ranking figures of the illegitimate Maduro regime that has corrupted Venezuela’s military, intelligence, legislature and judiciary.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth praised the declaration for introducing “a whole bunch of new options” to combat what he described as “narco-terrorists” and “illegitimate regimes.”

The Venezuelan government says the Cartel de los Soles does not exist. Foreign Affairs Minister Yván Gil called Monday’s appointment a “ridiculous sham”. He said the US was using “a despicable lie to justify the illegitimate and illegal intervention in Venezuela in the classic US format of regime change.”

The truth is somewhere in the middle.

Experts say the Cartel de los Soles is less a traditional cartel (with a centralized command structure directing various cells) than a shorthand term used in the media and elsewhere to describe a loose group of corrupt Venezuelan military officials involved in the drug trade.

The name Sun Cartel comes from the sun emblem found on the uniforms of Venezuelan soldiers, similar to the stars on US military uniforms. This has been around since the early 1990s, when Venezuela was a major transshipment point for Colombian cocaine destined for the US market. Today, only a small portion of the cocaine smuggled into the United States is transported through Venezuela.

Venezuelan journalist Ronna Rísquez Sánchez said it is unclear whether Maduro is actually directing the illegal activities carried out by his military or just allowing it to happen among his government. Either way, “it’s happening right under your nose,” he said.

However, he did not rule out that capturing Maduro’s possible connections to drug trafficking could be a convenient “excuse” for US political machinations.

For the Venezuelan people, recent weeks have witnessed a growing sense of uncertainty and anguish as people contemplate constantly conflicting reports of a possible US attack.

More than a decade of political, social and economic turmoil has left people exhausted and lethargic; They often can’t believe anything they hear about the future of Maduro’s government. There is a pervasive sense of resignation and a sense that things could get worse.

“We hear every week that they are going to get rid of Maduro, but he is still here,” said Inés Rojas, 25, a street vendor in Caracas. “We all want a change, but a change that makes things better, not worse. We young people have no future. The doors of immigration are closed, we are locked here without knowing what will happen.”

For the most part, people seem to want to put an end to the overwhelming feeling of not knowing what will happen next.

“I pray every day for this uncertainty to end,” said Cristina López Castillo, a 37-year-old unemployed office worker who supports Maduro’s impeachment. “We don’t have a future or a present. We live every day wondering what will happen tomorrow. I’m more afraid of hunger than Trump.”

Still, Maduro has many supporters, and not just among the military and political elite who see their loyalty rewarded with additional wealth. Many remain grateful for the social welfare legacy of Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, and wary of U.S. motivations in Venezuela.

“We Venezuelans do not want to be anyone’s colony, nor do we want anyone to drop bombs on us to get rid of a president,” said José Gregorio Martínez Pina, 45, a construction worker in the capital.

“Is Maduro a narco? I haven’t seen any evidence,” he said. “And if there is, they should present it instead of a country living under terror for weeks.”

Times staff writers Linthicum and McDonnell reported from Mexico City. Special correspondent Mogollón reported in Caracas. Michael Wilner of the Times Washington bureau also contributed reporting.