ISIS leader still at large as Africa becomes terror group’s epicenter, analyst says

Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, ISIS’s shadow commander in West Africa, was killed on May 16 using what one extremist analyst described as one of the most difficult forms of intelligence to detect, after decades of being protected by “deep local networks” across the region.

The killing dealt one of the biggest blows to ISIS’s global network in recent years, disrupting operations in northeastern Nigeria, while the terror group’s top leader, Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qureshi, remains at large as Africa becomes the movement’s global epicenter.

“There is no single ISIS ‘hub’ in Nigeria; ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province) operates dozens of small, volatile camps scattered throughout the Lake Chad islands and Borno bush.” Dr. Omer MuhammadGW Extremism Program Senior Research Fellow told Fox News Digital:

“Al-Minuki would not have a smartphone, instead relying on courier-based communication and constant movement between these small camps,” he said.

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Muhammad explained that President Donald Trump’s apparent reference to “sources informing us” directly points to human intelligence, or HUMINT (the most difficult form of intelligence to detect or counter a target).

The precision strike successfully penetrated defenses that had been held for years.

“He could have tapped into deep local networks that the Nigerian military has been trying to penetrate for over a decade,” Mohammed added.

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“Its operational security would be very serious,” Mohammed said. “But two things eventually disrupt even careful goals: Time creates patterns, and human resources are extremely difficult to beat.”

“Despite serious operational security, al-Minuki was ultimately compromised through persistent human intelligence,” he said. “Al-Minuki knew he was marked.”

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ISIS caliph Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi is thought to have fled to Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region. (Carolyn Van Houten/Washington Post)

The Nigerian military described the attack as a “meticulously planned and highly complex, precision air-ground operation” carried out between midnight and 4am on Saturday in Metele, in Borno State in northeastern Nigeria.

U.S. Africa Command, or AFRICOM, carried out the attack in northeastern Nigeria, and Nigerian military communications specifically pointed to the Metele area.

Despite tactical success, the current ISIS “caliph” or overall leader remains at large to reports.

Muhammad claimed that Al-Qurayshi “was chosen after the death of his predecessor in Syria.”

Muhammed stated that al-Qurayshi took over the leadership after Turkish authorities killed his predecessor in 2023, and said, “While analysts describe leaders in this line as ‘caliphs of the shadows’, he is deliberately being brazen.” he said.

Although al-Qureshi’s exact location is unknown, reports indicate that he traveled from Syria or Iraq via Yemen to Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region.

“This is also where the financial center is located, so the entire center of gravity of the organization (leadership, finance, operational management) has been quietly moving to Africa for years,” Mohammed said.

WHILE ISIS TAKES OFF IN THE SAHEL REGION OF AFRICA, WESTERN POWERS ARE REPLACED BY RUSSIAN MERCENARIES

GW Extremism Program Senior Research Fellow Dr. “Africa has transformed from a peripheral area into the operational and financial center of global ISIS activities,” Omar Mohammed told Fox News Digital. (Jaron Willis/AFRICOM)

Data Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project This report confirms this regional shift, showing that more than two-thirds of the Islamic State’s global activities now occur in Africa.

“Africa has transitioned from a peripheral area to the operational and financial center of global ISIS activity,” Mohammed said. “Africa is no longer a theater on the periphery. It’s the main stage. Financing is mostly local and exploitative (taxation, ransom, smuggling) and that’s exactly why these networks are so resilient.”

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“Al-Minuki, for example, rose through ISWAP and operated throughout the Lake Chad Basin and into the broader Sahel,” he said.

“Yet the surveillance of al-Minuki is the most significant blow to ISIS’s global leadership architecture since the al-Baghdadi raid in 2019, which has become the group’s quietly beating heart,” Mohammed said, before adding that the attack “was not a one-off kinetic moment.” he said.