Israel flagged Hezbollah threat before launching air attacks, leaked memo shows | US-Israel war on Iran
A US internal assessment shows that Israeli officials had doubts that the Lebanese state could disarm Hezbollah even before Israel launched an airstrike against the group on Monday.
The leaked embassy cable shows that on the eve of joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Israeli officials told Washington that Hezbollah was rebuilding its military capabilities faster than the Lebanese armed forces could weaken them. He said neither Beirut nor Damascus could be trusted to contain the threat on Israel’s northern borders.
The February 27 cable, seen by the Guardian, was sent to Washington a day before Israel and the US launched an airstrike against Iran, killing the country’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and prompting Tehran to launch retaliatory strikes across the region.
Three days after the US cable was sent, Israel launched the first of a wave of air strikes against Hezbollah-held areas south of Beirut.
The cable stated that Israel doubts that Syria’s new leaders will be able to control its security forces and is “gravely” alarmed by Turkish military positions in Syria, which it warns could pose a strategic threat to Israel’s north. He also claimed that while Israeli and Turkish national security officials maintain their “non-conflict” agreement, Turkish officials have “repeatedly incited against Israel in Syria.” The cable stated that this showed that Ankara was following a dual path, that is, while privately managing relations with Tel Aviv, it was positioning itself militarily in Syria at the expense of Israel.
The purpose of the cable was to provide a background briefing to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio ahead of his trip to Israel, which was later cancelled. It was written under the auspices of Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel. Huckabee, who describes himself as a Christian Zionist, told US journalist Tucker Carlson days ago that it would be “good” for Israel to seize territory stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates, including Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and parts of Iraq and Saudi Arabia. These words caused a diplomatic scandal Condemnation from 14 governmentsIt prompted the embassy to say, “US policy has not changed.”
Huckabee also told Carlson, “If Israel gets attacked in all these places and wins the war and takes that land, OK, that’s a whole other discussion.”
The embassy cable stated that Israeli officials had lost confidence that the Lebanese state would take action against Hezbollah. According to the internal report, Israel “contains great doubts that Hezbollah will agree to lay down its arms” and questions the Lebanese government’s “determination to confront Hezbollah to gain control of all Lebanese territory.”
The cable stated that despite the ceasefire in November 2024, Iranian financing still reached the group “via Türkiye and elsewhere.” The cable also states that the Israel Defense Forces has already been forced “to launch military attacks against Hezbollah as a result.”
The Lebanese army announced in January that it was taking over security in southern Lebanon; This is a move that Israel views with skepticism. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said efforts to completely disarm Hezbollah “are an encouraging start, but are far from sufficient, as evidenced by Hezbollah’s efforts to rearm and rebuild its terrorist infrastructure with Iranian support.”
The ceasefire, achieved after months of cross-border contacts, was already under strain before the Iranian attacks began; Israeli forces maintained five military outposts north of the blue line determined by the UN in Lebanese territory.
On Syria, Israeli officials told embassy staff that they doubted that president Ahmed al-Shara had the “ability and willingness to control the security forces.” They expressed concern that Turkish military trenches were called “serious” in the internal report, warning that it “could pose a strategic threat to Israel.”
Israel has maintained a military presence in the UN buffer zone separating Israel and Syria since the overthrow of the Assad regime in December 2024; a move that was widely condemned internationally but which Israel insists it has an obligation to defend.
The telegram was sent a day before the US and Israeli attacks on Iran began. Within 72 hours, Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel for the first time since a ceasefire in 2024, Israel bombed Beirut, and Lebanon’s prime minister, Nawaf Salam, called an emergency cabinet meeting demanding Hezbollah be disarmed.
In January, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem showed little sign of heeding that call, saying any attack on Tehran was an attack on Hezbollah.
