Israeli strikes and US troop buildup put Pakistan’s peacemaker role under pressure | Pakistan

Israel’s intense bombing of civilian targets in Iran and the expanding US military force in the Gulf cast a dark shadow over Pakistan’s hopes of hosting peace talks between Iran and the US.

Pakistan has been attempting high-wire diplomacy, using its relative neutrality as a country with good relations with Iran and the US to provide a venue for negotiations. It is not a player in the Middle East and does not host any American military bases, so it does not bring the baggage of other potential regional mediators.

Pakistan’s de facto leader, military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, has the ear of the US president, and Islamabad’s ties with Tehran have improved dramatically in the past few years.

Both sides have expressed willingness to talk in principle, according to Pakistani officials. But the conflict is widening, there is little trust, and the stated positions of Tehran and Washington are very different from each other. Pakistani officials believe the biggest risk to any negotiations is Israel playing a spoiler role.

Israel bombed Iran’s two largest steel mills and civilian nuclear facilities on Friday; Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said this contradicted President Donald Trump’s statement calling for a pause in attacks on civilian infrastructure to give diplomacy a chance. Iran also said two universities were hit.

Pakistani officials believe these are attacks on military and non-regime targets that could derail negotiations.

Former Pakistani ambassador to the US Maleeha Lodhi said Iran’s main concern is to ensure that the war ends and that the US and Israel do not launch any attacks in the future.

“The hardest part is taking Trump at his word. He’s not a rational actor. He’s a complete weirdo,” Lodhi said.

Trump insists Iran wants a deal “badly,” but Tehran says it is “negotiating with itself.”

Iran doesn’t just want a ceasefire, it also wants a guarantee of ending the war. One possibility is for Tehran to maintain its dominance over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for the Gulf’s oil and gas exports that Iran controlled during the war. The idea was called unacceptable by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but Trump proposed joint US-Iran management of the strait.

So far, Pakistan has made proposals for which the two parties have taken tough stances. Pakistani officials believe that the gap can be bridged if Iran and the United States sincerely want to reach an agreement.

Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts intensified on Saturday, with the country’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, calling Iranian president Massoud Pezeshkian and announcing that the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan would hold talks in Islamabad on Sunday and Monday on how to end the war.

These four countries are emerging as a new alliance in the Muslim world, bringing together the three largest militaries in the region, nuclear weapons and the financial heft of Saudi Arabia. But officials in Saudi Arabia, which Iran has repeatedly struck, have said privately that they want the bombardment to continue.

Islamabad expects any talks to be indirect, with Pakistani officials shuttling between US and Iranian delegations in different rooms. Tehran refuses to meet face to face with US officials.

Pakistan has nuclear weapons and a large army that could provide a venue for talks, while its air force could also provide Iranian officials with an escort to fly in.

Iran says Washington, which bombed it twice in the middle of talks last year, is trying to deceive it again. The buildup of US troops in the region shows that peace talks may not be the US’s plan. The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that the Pentagon is considering sending 10,000 more troops on top of the 7,000 ground troops already heading to the Middle East.

To build trust, Pakistan proposed that the United States be represented by vice president J.D. Vance; This idea was also adopted by Iran. Tehran does not trust Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, whom it has dealt with before. Vance reportedly became more skeptical of the war.

Vance said on Friday’s “Benny Show” podcast that the United States has achieved most or all of its military goals, but added: “The president will continue to do this for a while to make sure we don’t have to do this again for a long, long time after we leave.”

For Pakistan, peace efforts have another urgency. Last year the country signed a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, meaning the country may have to go to war on Riyadh’s side. Pakistan, which has a long border with Iran and has the world’s second largest Shiite Muslim population after Iran, is determined to avoid this situation.