Starmer’s deputy warns Mandelson scandal will impact crucial by-election
Sir Keir Starmer’s deputy leader has warned that the by-election in Gorton and Denton is a “trial” for the general election as the prime minister, scarred by the Peter Mandelson scandal, faces a struggle to hold on to the historically safe Labor seat.
Lucy Powell told Independent He said the vote on February 26 represented a “line in the sand” in Labour’s fight to stop the advance of Nigel Farage’s UK Reform.
But he admitted he expected the Mandelson issue to come to his doorstep and could not say whether he was confident Labor would retain the seat or whether the prime minister would show his face there.
Ministers, senior Labor figures and backbench MPs believe the by-election is the “critical point” for the beleaguered prime minister, with one claiming: “This is a referendum on Starmer, pure and simple.”
The Prime Minister has faced the toughest week of his premiership so far; His integrity and judgment have been called into question over his decision to appoint Lord Mandelson as US ambassador despite knowledge of his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
Adding to their troubles, he and his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, were allegedly warned by both former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and Labor MP Maurice Glasman not to appoint Mandelson to the role of US ambassador.
Ms Rayner, who campaigned in Gorton and Denton on Saturday, is now emerging as a potential replacement for Sir Keir, and her siding with the Conservative Party on Wednesday was crucial in forcing the Prime Minister to release all review documents linked to Mandelson’s appointment.
Shocking revelations that Mandelson passed confidential, market-sensitive government materials to Epstein while he was commerce secretary in 2009 have raised new questions about the appointment.
Ms Powell acknowledged the scandal would become one of the factors in the by-election and offered a lukewarm defense of the prime minister’s actions in appointing him as US ambassador.
“The one thing I would say is that prime ministers have to make judgments all day long, all the time, and sometimes they get them wrong,” he said. “I think the Prime Minister has his hands up on this.”
Labor is under no illusions about the scale of the task before us in Gorton and Denton. Ministers in the Greater Manchester constituency have been ordered to campaign in the seat the party won with more than 50 per cent of the vote in 2024.
Their campaign had already taken a hit after Sir Keir blocked Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from becoming Labour’s candidate, and many believed he was the only man who could stop Reformation.
Ms Powell, who allowed Mr Burnham to stand as a candidate on Labour’s National Executive Committee, said she and Manchester “wanted to draw a line” over the incident but insisted it was a “great asset” to the by-election campaign.
He highlighted that while Labor was doing everything to stop Reform, a number of cabinet ministers, including chancellor Rachel Reeves, education secretary Bridget Phillipson and transport minister Heidi Alexander, had been sent to the by-election to knock on doors. But he could not say whether the beleaguered prime minister would join them.
He said: “I’m not sure yet, but look, everyone will come and play their part. But I talk to him about it regularly.”
Nigel Farage, who has visited the constituency several times to campaign alongside Reform UK candidate Matt Goodwin, said: Independent: “I truly believe this will turn into a referendum on Keir Starmer.”
A Labor MP said: “Farage couldn’t have written this. It allows him to portray politicians as ‘in charge’, part of some kind of elite, helping each other rather than voters. A complete disaster for a seat where everyone is watching and there is pressure to prove Reform can be stopped.”
One minister added: “If we do this [come third]The Prime Minister is in trouble.”
Others repeated that he must go now, with left-wing MP Nadia Whittome describing the prime minister’s position as “untenable”.
Kim Johnson, the Labor MP for Liverpool Riverside, said: “Public and MPs are not willing to wait for the by-election or the local people – both would be serious tests anyway. The Mandelson scandal overshadows all of that.”
Poole MP Neil Duncan-Jordan added: “We cannot continue like this, lurching from one crisis to the next.”
Latest polls show Reform in the lead, but only by a few points on average. Green’s published data shows Reform sitting in second place with them and Labor a distant third.
Two of the main current MRP polls show Reform ahead of Labour: the Electoral Account at 32 per cent to Labour’s 22.6, and the British Estimates at 32 per cent to Labour’s much higher 26 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Poll Report predicts Labor will hold the seat with 35.26 per cent of the vote, with Reform holding the seat with 27.65 votes.
But Ms Powell, who represents the nearby seat of Manchester Central and is leading the campaign alongside candidate Angeliki Stogia, struck a defiant tone.
“This isn’t about my wealth or anyone else’s. I’m tired of theirs.” [Reform’s] Divisions, marginalization, blaming society’s problems on immigrants.”
Highlighting how Reform candidate Matt Goodwin was backed by far-right activist Tommy Robison, he added: “There has to be a line in the sand here and with the election that is the line and I hold that line firmly as we all as a team.”
Asked if this campaign was “a rehearsal” for Labour’s national fight against Reformation, he said: “In some ways it is. It’s about showing that we are absolutely ready for this fight, we are ready to take on this fight.”
“There are things we need to try here and learn from here. It’s important because we can’t let Reformation come into an area like this and run loose.”
