Jess Wilson passes first election test despite One Nation challenge
The Liberal Party claimed victory in the seat of Nepean on Saturday night despite a cut in its primary vote and a serious challenge from rising One Nation and a popular local independent.
Opposition Leader Jess Wilson told an enthusiastic crowd of party faithful that she was thrilled to welcome Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh as the next member for Nepean.
He took the stage at the Verve Bar at the Rye Hotel just after 9pm, when 79.23 percent of the votes had been counted, and Marsh received 38.49 percent of the primary vote. enough to push him to victory about preferences.
“I have been by Anthony’s side for weeks, worked with him for months on this midterm election campaign, and he has worked tirelessly every day to listen to residents across the peninsula,” Wilson said.
Liberal MP David Southwick added that it had been a tough campaign but “Nepean people said yes for Jess”.
Election analysts called for the election for Marsh to be held at 8 p.m. But his primary vote was significantly lower than the 48.1 percent vote received by outgoing MP Sam Groth when he won the seat in the 2022 election.
“I will fight for you every day, but I will also learn the lessons of the outcome,” Wilson told Nepean voters on Saturday night.
“We will pass on what we have learned tonight and the takeaway is that we have more work to do every day to earn the trust of Victorians,” he said.
Labor did not contest the Mornington Peninsula by-election; Labour’s absence opened the door for independent Tracee Hutchison to take 21.31 per cent of the primary vote as of 9pm. The Greens are on just over 9.3 per cent, down from the 8.8 per cent result in 2022.
In the first test Growing popularity of One Nation In Victoria, candidate Darren Hercus came in second with 24.69 percent of the primary votes.
Antony Green, the ABC’s former chief election analyst, called the by-election at 8.20pm and said no other candidate could beat Marsh on preferences. If Hutchison comes second, One Nation’s preferences will help elect the Liberals, he said.
“Even if One Nation finishes second, the Greens and independent voters will choose Marsh instead,” Green said.
William Bowe, editor of election website Poll Bludger, also called a by-election for Marsh. Monash University political scientist Zareh Ghazarian also agrees that the Liberals are likely to maintain their grip on Nepean.
He said the surge of primary votes against them showed voters were “taking this opportunity to deal some blow to the Liberal Party, but it doesn’t look like it will be enough for the Liberal Party to lose the seat.”
“This shouldn’t have been a seat for the Liberal Party to lose anyway,” Ghazarian said. “So this is a warning sign for the Liberal Party.”
In his victory speech on Saturday night, Marsh said he was ready to start “fighting for the people of Nepean as we head into one of the most important state elections we have ever seen.”
“It’s been a tough campaign… this is the outcome we were hoping for and I’m delighted to be able to bring it home for you tonight,” he told supporters.
The Nepean by-election has appeared to be a serious test for the Victorian Liberals, a traditionally safe seat ahead of November’s state election, since the retirement of Groth, the party’s former deputy leader.
Liberal Party sources, speaking anonymously to detail internal discussions, were preparing for a significant cut in primary votes from 2022; some were surprised by the support for One Nation during early voting.
Hercus thanked supporters for their continued support Saturday night as he announced his intention to run again in November’s election in front of cheering fans.
“I had such amazing support from the volunteers… even though we didn’t win, we stayed on a moral high ground,” he said.
Adding to the complexity of the count, 23,605 people had voted early by Friday. Another 6,043 had returned vote-by-mail applications. Having more than 50,000 registered residents in the electorate means more than half of the electorate cast ballots before the polls opened on Saturday.
A poor result at Nepean would deal a major blow to the momentum the Coalition had gained since Wilson’s ascension to the Liberal leadership. The coalition needs to win 16 seats in the lower house to form a government in November.
Speaking earlier on Saturday, Wilson argued that he was not guaranteed the seat.
In 2022, former tennis player Groth comfortably claimed Nepean for the Liberals by a margin of 6.4 per cent. But Groth’s shock decision to quit politics in February coincided with a surge in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation; This left the Coalition with the support of the populist right-wing party.
Fears of an upset were further fueled in March when One Nation won four lower house seats in the South Australian election, three of which were held by the Liberals. This tension continued throughout the campaign at Nepean; Both sides accused each other of providing misinformation and spilling internal squabbles into the public eye.
Age One Nation leadership allegedly advised candidate Darren Hercus to use personal bank details to accept donations, which would have breached Victoria’s election laws. One Nation disputed the news. When you approach Age Outside a voting booth on Saturday, Hercus declined to comment, citing this headline report.
Marsh, who is currently on leave from his role as mayor of the Mornington Peninsula Shire, was pre-selected in February. Long-serving local Liberal members were ignored in favor of Marsh, who had recently joined the party. He lived in a neighboring suburb and could not vote for himself because he did not live among the electorate.
The Liberals used their opposition status to attack One Nation in their campaign materials. A sign authorized by the Liberals outside a polling booth in Nepean on Saturday read: “A vote for One Nation is a victory for Jacinta Allan in November.”
Hutchison said Nepean would never be considered a safe Liberal seat again and was “incredibly humbled” by the results.
“There’s a lot coming our way tonight,” he said before Marsh declared victory.
“In many ways, I am the moderate candidate that a voter like Nepean would best represent because I would be someone who would reach across the aisles [in parliament] … and try to get bipartisan results.”
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Angus Delaney is a reporter for The Age. Email him at angus.delaney@theage.com.au or contact him securely on Signal at angusdelaney.31.Connect via email.
