Kalshi traders think Anthropic will restore access to AI model quickly
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AI giant Anthropic shocked observers on Friday evening when it said it was disabling access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models to comply with a US government order.
But traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think the Fable model is not at all likely to return to US consumers in July.
Investors estimate a 58% chance that Anthropic will restore access to Fable 5 before July 1. They think it’s even more likely to return by July 10, with a 74% chance of it happening by then. In order for the event agreement to be finalized as a “yes”, US customers’ general access to the model must be restored.
Access to Fable 5 was disabled after the US government told Anthropic to suspend access to the technology for any foreign national inside or outside the country. To ensure compatibility, Anthropic has disabled the model for all its customers.
The decision comes just days after the company announced Fable 5. Anthropic previously clashed with President Donald Trump’s administration in March after the Department of Defense labeled the company a supply chain risk.
Investors’ bullish sentiment comes after Anthropic met with the Trump administration on Monday to discuss the model. It is not yet clear whether this meeting has produced any progress between the two sides.
At Polymarket, traders will regain 67% access to US customers by July 1.
