Kalshi traders think Coinbase’s trading volume will fall again
This photo taken on January 21, 2026, shows the Coinbase logo signboard at the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos.
Ina Fassbender | AFP | Getty Images
Like bitcoin Prices fell again in the second quarter, according to traders on the Kalshi prediction market platform Coinbase Trading volumes dropped once again.
The cryptocurrency trading platform is expected to record a decline in trading volumes for the third quarter in a row, and speculators are also confident that total trading volume will fall below $200 billion for the first time since the third quarter of 2024.
Investors give a 41% chance that the transaction volume will be over $160 billion, and only a 25% chance that it will be over $170 billion. That compares with analysts’ consensus estimates of $168.5 billion, according to FactSet.
Speculators are more confident that the volume will be above $150 billion, which puts the probability of this happening at 99%.
Coinbase will release its second quarter earnings report on July 30.
The Kalshi contract asks investors whether Coinbase trading volume will exceed various levels, and the outcome is analyzed using information from investment research platform Fiscal.ai.
Coinbase shares are down more than 55% since Bitcoin prices peaked in October 2025. Previous declines in Coinbase trading volume in the first quarter of 2026 and the fourth quarter of 2025 occurred at the same time that Bitcoin prices also fell during this period.
Coinbase since October 7, 2025.
Bitcoin prices fell again by about 12% in the second quarter.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.
