Labour on course for worst election result in London in more than 40 years
Labor is on course for its worst result in more than four decades in London’s upcoming local elections, a new poll has shown.
The Greens and Reform are set to take a share of Labour’s vote in London, which would leave Sir Keir Starmer’s party with significant losses in the capital.
An MRP survey of 32 London boroughs, conducted by YouGov for Sky News and Politico, shows Labor on track to win the highest vote share in 15 councils; that number is six fewer than in 2022.
The last time Labor won fewer than 15 London councils was 44 years ago in 1982, when it won just 12.
The Green Party is expected to take the highest share of votes in four councils, including Lewisham and Lambeth, while Reform is expected to take the highest share in three councils. No party has ever won a London council poll before.
Worker sources told Independent They expect a “bloodbath” in Islington, just as Green Party sources say they expect to take Hackney.
The poll shows the Conservatives ahead in five councils, down from six at the last election, while the Liberal Democrats are set to win the most votes in four councils.
It is also claimed that Nigel Farage’s party will receive support from the outer boroughs of London, which were previously under the control of the Conservatives. Meanwhile, they are expected to eat into Labor’s vote share in Barking, Dagenham and Bromley.
Amid devastating approval ratings and growing questions about the government’s direction, Sir Keir’s party is expected to suffer serious losses in May, with some polls putting it on track to lose close to 2,000 council seats.
Modeling by More in Common shows Labor losing 1,597 seats in the best-expected scenario and 1,738 seats in the worst-case scenario, while the Conservative Party’s range of losses is between 692 and 368.
Support for a reform UK appears to have stabilized following huge gains in last year’s election, with the expected number of new seats ranging between 1,603 and 1,273.
Meanwhile, in a best-case scenario, the biggest gains for the party could be made by the Greens, with estimates ranging from 1,741 to 573 votes.
The Liberal Democrats are expected to win between 503 and 148 seats.
The election is seen as a moment of particular danger for Sir Keir Starmer, as speculation continues about his position amid the fallout from the Peter Mandelson scandal.
It comes after former Foreign Office chief Sir Olly Robbins said there was a “condescending approach” from No 10 to an investigation and an “atmosphere of pressure” to ensure Lord Mandelson was appointed as Britain’s ambassador to the US.
YouGov’s MRP survey used data from more than 4,500 adults in fieldwork in London from 27 March to 21 April. It predicts the vote shares of each of the parties in London’s 32 boroughs.
