Lessons from Optus and the political risks of relying on LEO satellite technology

A bold satellite plan risks repeating Optus-style failures unless it builds resilience, redundancy and true oversight into every layer of Australia’s digital infrastructure, writes Paul Budde.

STATE’S Universal Outdoor Mobile Obligation (UOMO) is an ambitious attempt to increase mobile coverage across Australia using low Earth orbit (leo) satellite technology.

For a country the size of Australia, this approach makes sense. But as recent events have shown, relying on emerging technologies without proven durability carries major political and operational risks.

Just weeks after the Optus outage left hundreds of triple zero calls missed and claimed the lives of three Australians, the Communications Minister Anika Wells called their CEO telstra, optus And KPI To Canberra.

The meeting was accompanied by new legislation establishing a Triple Zero Officer within the Department of Communications, designed to provide stronger oversight and coordination of Australia’s emergency call system.

While this is a welcome step forward, it also serves as a warning. If mature, well-established networks can be so disastrous, what happens when we start relying on new, still-developing technologies like direct-to-device (D2D) satellite services?

Developmental uncertainties and political risks

Direct-to-device LEO satellite connectivity is still in its infancy. The technology holds great promise, but current infrastructure lacks the scale and maturity to deliver reliable, universal service. Achieving broad coverage could take another five years, depending on how quickly operators deploy satellite constellations; timelines are beyond the Government’s control.

If disruptions occur during this rollout, especially during natural disasters or emergencies, the political repercussions could be serious. The Optus crisis made one thing clear: when communications systems fail, public trust evaporates and responsibility falls squarely on the government, not the technology vendors.

Dependency on a single provider

Right now, SpaceX‘s starlink It remains the dominant LEO operator with near-national coverage capability. Heavy reliance on a foreign-owned private company introduces a new layer of vulnerability. As we saw in Ukraine and Brazil, individual institutional decisions can directly affect national infrastructure. Australia cannot afford this kind of dependence on critical communications.

The Government must therefore establish partnerships with multiple LEO providers to deliver redundancy and competition, principles that have long been missing in the terrestrial telecommunications sector and have contributed to the fragility exposed by Optus’ failures.

Integration with Universal Service Obligation

The introduction of UOMO adds further complexity to the already outdated Universal Service Obligation (USO). The current USO framework, which focuses on landline voice services, no longer reflects how Australians communicate or what they depend on. We’ve been talking about this for years, but we promise nothing will happen beyond scrutiny.

Regarding LEO satellite services, they need to be carefully integrated into a renewed system that guarantees reliability and interoperability.

We cannot repeat the mistakes made in traditional networks by leaving flexibility to market forces or assuming private operators will maintain adequate backup capacity. The triple zero experience shows that such assumptions are dangerous.

A broader national infrastructure problem

CEO of Telstra searched recently We are pushing for a national plan for digital infrastructure and the steps the Government has taken this week point in that direction. But the plan needs to go beyond just corporate priorities or emergency systems. Australia needs a comprehensive, independent assessment of its digital infrastructure: fixed, mobile, satellite and data.

This should determine whether current investment levels are sufficient to maintain resilience in the coming years, especially at a time when telecommunications margins are tightening and the cost of improving infrastructure is rising.

If traditional networks are already struggling to remain robust, adding an additional layer of emerging satellite technology without strong oversight could further complicate the problem rather than solve it.

Policy recommendations

To make UOMO a success and safeguard Australia’s mobile future, the Government will:

• Diversify partnerships: Engage multiple LEO satellite operators to ensure redundancy and reduce strategic vulnerability.
• Create emergency plans: Establish national backup communications systems for use during satellite or terrestrial outages.
• Clarify the USO framework: Describe how UOMO fits into a streamlined, unified universal service model.
• Promote technological development: Support research and development for D2D capabilities and local manufacturing whenever possible.
• Exercise regulatory oversight: Empower the new Triple Zero Officer and potentially expand his remit to include technical audits of emerging communications systems.

Solution

The government’s LEO satellite initiative represents innovation and ambition, but it also carries new forms of risk. The recent Optus disaster reminded us that reliability cannot be assumed and critical communications require constant attention and independent oversight.

If Australia wants to be a leader in digital infrastructure, it must ensure that every layer, from fiber to satellites, is designed not just for performance but also for resilience. UOMO’s success will ultimately depend not just on technology, but also on the strength of national frameworks that keep Australians connected at the moments that matter most.

Paul Budde IA is a columnist and managing director of independent telecommunications research and consultancy. Paul Budde Consulting. You can follow Paul on Twitter @PaulBudde.

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