Liberals pin turnaround hopes on another new leader
The first-term Liberal MP will be tasked with repairing his party’s damaged brand, but one analyst is skeptical the move will make any difference.
Kellie Sloane will nominate herself to become Liberal leader after Mark Speakman bowed to pressure to resign, and she was the only candidate confirmed on Thursday evening.
There was speculation that former minister Alister Henskens might nominate, but News Corp reported that he decided not to throw his hat in the ring.
The position will be determined at a meeting in the party room on Friday.
Accepting his fate, Mr Speakman conceded it was “statistically unlikely” that the first-term opposition would bring a Labor government to power at the 2027 state election.
No first-term opposition has won an election in NSW or federally since the 1930s.
The Coalition has fallen in recent polls; Some polls, including DemosAU, put Labor ahead 59-41 on a two-party basis.
“We’re looking at 58 and 59 per cent, that’s quite a big difference… they’re in a pretty tough spot at the moment and there’s been times when they’ve been in a slightly better position,” election analyst Ben Raue told AAP. he said.
“I doubt a change of leadership will change things, I don’t think people think much of Mark Speakman, positive or negative, and I’m not sure it’s his fault.”
Speaking before Mr Speakman’s resignation, the Tally Room blogger questioned whether it was individual unpopularity or wider damage to the Liberal brand that was leaving them behind in the polls.
“Removing someone and replacing them with someone else is a very easy mechanical change to make, but unless that’s the specific reason you’re unpopular, it’s not going to change anything,” he said.
“If the opinion poll is due to the performance of the government, if it is due to certain wider issues or internal conflicts within the party, this will not be resolved by a change of leadership.”
Mr Speakman lamented the “disarray” of the federal coalition since the coup in May’s election; this included backtracking on its commitment to a net-zero emissions policy.
The NSW Liberals, unlike their Canberra counterparts, have committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050.
Ms Sloane, a former TV news presenter who was elected to parliament in 2023, is seen as the most credible challenger to the leadership.
“He is an extremely capable person who can take this fight to Labor and, let’s be honest, he has been absolutely brilliant over the three or so years he has been in Parliament,” Mr Speakman said.
