Thailand dissolves parliament amid escalating border strife with Cambodia
Thai prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul speaks with members of the media on the sidelines of a seminar in Bangkok, Thailand, Thursday, November 20, 2025.
Dario Pignatelli | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Thailand’s king has approved dissolving parliament ahead of a US bid to salvage a fragile ceasefire with Cambodia, deepening political instability in the Southeast Asian country.
One royal edict In news published Friday, King Maha Vajiralongkorn approved Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s request to dissolve parliament after the minority government failed to reach an agreement with the majority opposition People’s Party on proposed constitutional changes.
According to Thai law, a general election must be held within 45 to 60 days after the decree.
The opposition reportedly threatened to submit a motion of no-confidence after Anutin’s government pressured him to expand the powers of elected MPs as part of the planned constitutional amendment.
In a post on Facebook late Thursday.Anutin said he would “give power back to the people.”
The political turmoil comes as the Southeast Asian country is embroiled in a large-scale row with Cambodia over long-disputed border claims. Tensions have risen this week, with violent clashes breaking out in several places along the border. at least 20 people and caused dozens of civilian injuries.
While US President Donald Trump is expected to meet with the leaders of the two countries soon, Anutin said that the call is planned for Friday at 21.20 Thailand time (08.20 Eastern).
The biggest risk is that breaking the ceasefire would irritate the Trump administration, as it is one of the regional conflicts that the ceasefire claims to help stabilize.
Gareth Leather
Senior Asia economist, Capital Economics
Anutin, who took office in September after Paetongtarn Shinawatra was dismissed by Thailand’s Constitutional Court for an ethics violation related to the Cambodia conflict, has taken a tougher stance on border clashes; This could spark nationalist support for the conservative Bhumjaithai party ahead of the election.
Anutin says dissolving parliament will not affect Thailand’s military operations on the border Local media outlets on Friday.
Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy has struggled with slow growth and expansion this year only 1.2% in the third quarter Prolonged political turmoil, uncertainty about tariffs with the US and border conflicts put pressure on confidence.
Thailand’s reference point SET DirectoryThe index, which is among the world’s worst-performing stock indicators for 2025, has lost nearly 10% so far this year. The baht has been relatively resilient and has gained over 7% strength against the dollar this year, driven by dollar weakness.
border disputes
The latest tensions followed the collapse of a company A fragile ceasefire brokered by Trump in July threatened to halt trade talks with the two countries unless they ended the war.
Thailand’s top diplomat Sihasak Phuangketkeow told his US counterpart Marco Rubio on Friday that the country is committed to finding a peaceful solution, but sustainable peace must be backed by actions, according to Reuters.
“We see a risk of the conflict continuing into early 2026 if the Thai government decides that taking a tougher line could strengthen its political stance ahead of possible 2026 early elections,” said Alexandra Hermann, chief economist at Oxford Economics.
A resident sits in a shelter in Sisaket province, where Cambodia and Thailand launched artillery strikes on each other’s disputed border areas early Sunday, just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump said leaders of both countries had agreed to work on a ceasefire in Thailand on July 27, 2025.
Athit Perawongmetha | Reuters
Hermann said renewed tensions increased downside risks to Oxford Economics’ 1.6% GDP growth forecast for Thailand in 2026, citing a possible loss in the Cambodian export market, labor shortages caused by an exodus of Cambodian workers and higher U.S. tariffs if trade talks stall.
Before the conflict, Cambodia was Thailand’s 11th largest country Export market in 2024According to Ministry of Commerce data, this rate is approximately 3%. total goods exports.
Bilateral trade has collapsed this year as border crossings are closed. The total value of Thailand’s exports to Cambodia fell 67% in October compared to the previous year. Ministry of Commerce data showed.
But Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, said one-third of those exports are oil, which could easily find an alternative market, but the real risk could be that Trump would reimpose higher tariffs on Thailand for breaking the ceasefire he brokered.
“The biggest risk is that breaking the ceasefire will irritate the Trump administration because it is one of the regional conflicts that the ceasefire claims to help stabilize,” Leather added.
Meanwhile, Hermann estimates that a protracted conflict could risk displacing 500,000 to 1.5 million Cambodian migrant workers from Thailand’s local workforce of about 40 million.
