Local election campaigning enters final week as forecaster warns Labour could lose 1,850 English seats –UK politics live | Politics
Local election campaign enters final week with forecaster warning Labor could lose 1,850 British seats
Good morning. We are now in the final week of campaigning for the Scottish parliament, the Welsh Senedd and the English local elections. Keir Starmer was planning to make a major speech today, but he and other political leaders are today focusing on their response to the stabbing in Golders Green and the threat of antisemitism facing Britain’s Jewish community, described as a “national security emergency” by Jonathan Hall KC, an independent reviewer of the government’s terrorism laws. Here’s our story from one night. And here is our live blog Taz Ali.
Taz will cover much of the political reaction to this story, and that’s not a topic I’ll cover here. (Also, since the criminal case is active, I’m afraid excessive comments about the attack will not be allowed.)
Let’s start instead with the elections and a member of the House of Lords called. Robert Hayward. Hayward is a Conservative and former MP but is known in Westminster as an election expert who produces detailed predictions ahead of elections. They are not always perfect – no forecast is – but they are well-informed and politically neutral, and Hayward is one of the very few people making such forecasts whose views are taken seriously by the main political parties. It won’t tell you exactly what will happen; but it’s worth reading if you want to know what politicians expect to happen (this is useful intelligence because election results are often judged by how they match expectations).
Hayward gave his prediction for the UK local elections on ITV’s Peston channel last night.
Hayward explains it this way in his summary.
England All figures given are net losses and gains
workforce will lose 1850 seats
Losses will be nationwide
What impact did Sir Keir have on your role? S This is bad news for Sir Keir and Labor, given the Times’ comment about 1,500 casualties and ‘nervous breakdown’.
Reform Overwhelmingly, Labor and the Conservatives outside London will make the biggest gains. they will win 1550 seats
Will national equivalent votes be lower than last year? I believe it will happen
conservatives will lose 600 Most of the seats on the councils were postponed from last year. These seats were previously contested in 2021, when the vaccine returned.
Do they win important councils or prevent the Reformation from gaining control of target councils? Yes
Did they improve on national equivalent votes last year? About static
Greens will win 500 Seats in middle-class areas of London and other cities
Can they hold any mayoralty, can they control any council? Yes definitely mayoral probably a council or two
Liberal Democrats will win 150 seats but they will need to win councils to be included in the ‘conversation’.
Will the national equivalent vote share reflect the decline in poll position? Yes
Have they lost their positions within the protest parties? Up to a point.
Independents will win 250 seats
Most of these will be in east London, Birmingham and Lancs
Other guesses are also available. I’ll share more about these soon.
Parliament is not sitting today and there is not much in the diary. But we will not be deprived of politics.
If you would like to contact me, please send a message below the line or send a message on social media during comments open hours (between 10:00 – 15:00). I can’t read all messages BTL, but if you type “Andrew” in a message addressed to me, I’m more likely to see it because I’m looking for posts containing that word.
If you want to flag something urgently, it’s best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has stopped posting from their official account on
I find it very helpful for readers to point out errors, even minor typos. No mistake is too small to be corrected. I also find your questions very interesting. I can’t promise to respond to them all, but I will try to respond as much as I can, either on BTL or sometimes on the blog.
important events
Robert Hayward’s predictions for UK local elections (see 9.06am) are broadly in line with equivalent figures produced by other pundits.
Here are the projections Stephen FisherOxford politics professor who was part of the team led by John Curtice who produced general election exit polls for the BBC and others. Posted this on a post Last month on the Elections Vb blog.
And here are the projections Sam Freedmanpolitical commentator, a post Freed Substack blog in the comment.
Inclusive schools ‘actively penalized in Ofsted grades’, union says
A headteachers’ union has said low grades in parts of the watchdog’s new report cards “actively penalize” schools for being more inclusive of students with special educational needs and disabilities (Send). The Press Association reports:
Analysis by NAHT In its review of the report card system, Ofsted found that one in five schools (20%) with above average numbers of pupils with Send were rated “needs attention” (the second lowest grade) in the attendance and behavior area of the report card.
NAHT said this was seen in one in 10 schools (9%) where the number of pupils from Send was below average.
This comes after the Government announced sweeping reforms to the Send system aimed at making the system and schools more inclusive.
NAHT general secretary Paul Whiteman He said the findings should “ring serious alarm bells” over the government’s ambitions for more students with Send to Learn in mainstream schools.
The Guardian’s data experts are also looking at Labour’s electoral prospects and say Labour’s vote share could fall to historic lows in council elections in England and devolved parliaments in Wales and Scotland, according to the latest polls, which could lead to big gains for the Reform, Greens and nationalist parties. Where is this from Alex Clark And Ashley Kirk.
Robert Hayward He also gave his predictions for the Scottish parliament and Welsh Senedd elections. He says:
Scotland– SNP is slightly away from majority
Wales– Plaid is the largest party in terms of both votes and seats
But there is much more interest in Hayward and other psephologists’ predictions for UK local elections because they are difficult to poll. By contrast, there are numerous polls available for the Holyrood and Senedd elections. One source of seat predictions based on this poll: Nowcast UK.
Local election campaign enters final week with forecaster warning Labor could lose 1,850 British seats
Good morning. We are now in the final week of campaigning for the Scottish parliament, the Welsh Senedd and the English local elections. Keir Starmer was planning to make a major speech today, but he and other political leaders are today focusing on their response to the Golders Green attack and the threat of antisemitism facing Britain’s Jewish community, described as a “national security emergency” by the government’s independent watchdog on terrorism legislation, Jonathan Hall KC. Here’s our story from one night. And here is our live blog Taz Ali.
Taz will cover much of the political reaction to this story, and that’s not a topic I’ll cover here. (Also, since the criminal case is active, I’m afraid excessive comments about the attack will not be allowed.)
Let’s start instead with the elections and a member of the House of Lords called. Robert Hayward. Hayward is a Conservative and former MP but is known in Westminster as an election expert who produces detailed predictions ahead of elections. They are not always perfect – no forecast is – but they are well-informed and politically neutral, and Hayward is one of the very few people making such forecasts whose views are taken seriously by the main political parties. It won’t tell you exactly what will happen; but it’s worth reading if you want to know what politicians expect to happen (this is useful intelligence because election results are often judged by how they match expectations).
Hayward gave his prediction for the UK local elections on ITV’s Peston channel last night.
Hayward explains it this way in his summary.
England All figures given are net losses and gains
workforce will lose 1850 seats
Losses will be nationwide
What impact did Sir Keir have on your role? S This is bad news for Sir Keir and Labor, given the Times’ comment about 1,500 casualties and ‘nervous breakdown’.
Reform Overwhelmingly, Labor and the Conservatives outside London will make the biggest gains. they will win 1550 seats
Will national equivalent votes be lower than last year? I believe it will happen
conservatives will lose 600 Most of the seats on the councils were postponed from last year. These seats were previously contested in 2021, when the vaccine returned.
Do they win important councils or prevent the Reformation from gaining control of target councils? Yes
Did they improve on national equivalent votes last year? About static
Greens will win 500 Seats in middle-class areas of London and other cities
Can they hold any mayoralty, can they control any council? Yes definitely mayoral probably a council or two
Liberal Democrats will win 150 seats but they will need to win councils to be included in the ‘conversation’.
Will the national equivalent vote share reflect the decline in poll position? Yes
Have they lost their positions within the protest parties? Up to a point.
Independents will win 250 seats
Most of these will be in east London, Birmingham and Lancs
Other guesses are also available. I’ll share more about these soon.
Parliament is not sitting today and there is not much in the diary. But we will not be deprived of politics.
If you would like to contact me, please send a message below the line or send a message on social media during comments open hours (between 10:00 – 15:00). I can’t read all messages BTL, but if you type “Andrew” in a message addressed to me, I’m more likely to see it because I’m looking for posts containing that word.
If you want to flag something urgently, it’s best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has stopped posting from their official account on
I find it very helpful when readers point out errors, even minor typos. No mistake is too small to be corrected. I also find your questions very interesting. I can’t promise to answer them all, but I will try to answer as much as I can, either on BTL or sometimes on the blog.
