Secret Liberal probe blames Trump for ruining Dutton’s election
The internal review into the Coalition’s historic election loss is highlighting the impact of Donald Trump not voting for Peter Dutton as the Liberal Party considers whether parts of the investigation should be censored because they are too embarrassing to be made public.
Leaked elements of the review, which has not yet been released, revealed that Dutton’s decision in February to give Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price a role inspired by Elon Musk’s controversial DOGE agency hurt the campaign.
The report, prepared nearly six months ago, was recently completed and the party’s federal leadership is now considering whether to seal embarrassing or sensitive campaign details that will not be made public.
Its publication was postponed until after the last session of parliament in order to avoid drawing more attention to internal problems, but Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s leadership continues to be disputed by her colleagues as new divisions emerge over immigration.
Ley’s allies and supporters of leadership rivals Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor are sweating over the report because, although it does not name them, the charged political document will detail the failings of Dutton and his aides and reflect their importance in writing the history of the loss and impact the reputations of key figures.
Ley was Dutton’s deputy, Taylor was shadow treasurer and Hastie was defense spokesman.
Most post-election analysis focuses on policy mistakes and personality clashes; It overlooks what senior campaigners believe is the difference between a typically bad election loss and Labour’s 94-seat defeat in the Coalition.
As public opinion turned against Trump in his first 100 days in office, Labor attacked Dutton for copying the US president’s playbook.
“Since then [Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr] Zelensky meeting in February to the period after liberation day [tariffs announcement]A senior figure involved in the campaign said he was unable to speak publicly before the review was published.
“The weak/strong duo between Dutton and Albanese worked to our advantage and politics started to choose to stick to the safe option.”
Published polls, including this imprint’s Resolve Political Monitor, showed a steep decline in support for Dutton in the first months of the Trump administration. In February, Resolve increased the Coalition’s primary vote to 39 per cent and Labor’s to 25 per cent. Dutton received a record low 31.8 per cent of the vote, while Labor rose to 35 per cent.
Similarly, Canadian conservative Pierre Poilievre was seen as a candidate poised to win months after an election in April, but like Dutton, he lost both the election and his own seat after embracing Trumpist policies.
While global concern about Trump has strengthened centre-left parties and those in power such as the Labor Party, Dutton’s campaign has made poor decisions that have exacerbated the problem. The review finds that the call for Price to be handed the role of shadow secretary of government efficiency, mirroring the name of the Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk, was a mistake, according to sources familiar with its contents who were not authorized to speak publicly.
“This enabled Labor to weaponize it,” said a person familiar with the review.
Senior MPs and campaigners have debated whether Dutton should show he is unsuited to Trump’s style of politics, noting that Australia supports middle-of-the-road policies of compulsory voting.
Dutton was harsh in his criticism of Trump after his infamous meeting with Zelensky at the White House. But the opposition leader’s message was muddied by his exaltation of Price, who freely adopted MAGA slogans and merchandise, and his praise of Trump’s “Gaza Riviera” thought bubble.
One reason for the failure to react quickly to the Trump threat was a disconnect between Dutton’s traveling staff and campaign bosses working at Parramatta headquarters. Examining the election, former senator Nick Minchin and former NSW minister Pru Goward concluded that the split between two key branches of the campaign was a critical factor in the loss.
Labor’s 94 seats in the House of Representatives and the Coalition’s decline to 43 seats have sparked months of infighting and anxiety about the possibility of a split between moderates and conservatives that would cripple the party’s ability to win elections.
The coalition’s support has waned further in the second half of this year, and Ley is struggling to keep his job. Hastie and Taylor have played a role in Dutton’s weak economic and defense bids respectively, and their supporters are wary of how the Minchin-Goward report could affect their leadership stock.
Wayne Swan, Labour’s outgoing party leader and former treasurer, said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s victory in September was “broad but shallow” because the party’s primary vote was still low. The Minchin-Goward review identifies other issues that changed Labor’s path ahead of the campaign, including the Queensland floods, which delayed the election date and allowed Labor to go for a budget and pressure Dutton on tax.
Paul Sakkal is Chief Political Correspondent. It has previously covered Victorian politics and won the Walkley and Quill awards. Reach him securely on Signal @paulsakkal.14Connect with: excitement or email.
