Mapped: Where 16 and 17-year-olds could sway the vote in next general election
The leading surveyers argued that Labour’s plan to reduce the voting age to 16 can make “recoil çi because reform British and Jeremy Corbyn’s new party could benefit from politics in the best way.
The “seismic” movement announced by the government as a part of a raft last month will allow approximately 1.5 million more young people to vote, and due to the country’s summer 2029 summer, the UK -diameter elections will be compatible with Scotland and Wales.
Keir Starmer encouraged their 16 and 17 -year -old children to vote in the next elections, and 10 people said that the Prime Minister would definitely encourage them to be as engaged in the future of their country ”.
However, the upper interviewers warned that the awards, which the Labor Party hoped to benefit from their plans, hoped that Nigel Farage’s reform and Mr. Corbyn’s party may not happen with potential real winners.
Respected Instructor and Conservative Peer Robert Hayward Independent: Orum I do not think that politics will be as useful as the Labor Party first suggested.
“My expectation in the multi -party political sphere we have now, such as reform, Green Party and Corbyn’s party, will be the beneficiaries of non -illegal parties, unlawful parties, young people will be the beneficiaries of voting from traditional parties.”
Martin Baxter, Director of Calculus, added the survey election: “The Labor Party may have a vote plan for those who are 16 and 17 years old. – This looked seem to Labor’s scales in his favor half -naked – Reform and Corbyn can backfire if he attracts these new voters. “
In Common Common, Louis O’Geran accepted more research and communication assistants in the UK. “It would be a mistake to see the lower age of votes as an easy gain for labor,” he said.
The numbers behind the 16th and 17 -year -old voters mapped
Independent He mapped the numbers behind the new 16 and 17 -year -old voters and showed how many people lived in each election zone throughout England.
New young voters who will prefer non -mainstream parties
Mr. O’gan drew attention to the division of gender among young people.
“In general, we know that young people are more than the people as a whole to vote for labor or greenery,” he said. “However, there is a remarkable gender division: Genal men are more likely to support labor and reform, while the green party is often leading among women women.”
While Mr. Corbyn’s party is likely to focus on green issues, Lord Hayward suggested that young girls could support the former workers’ leader party if he çıkan completely out of the ground ”.
He described an important charm of the new party to young people as “none of the above”. – Bir An example of what young people describe as a phenomenon proven that they enjoy voting by voting, not for the main parties.
However, he warned that the influence of the party, which was not yet officially known by Mr. Corbyn, was not yet known last month with Sultana.
Mr. Baxter added that the data on the new party’s potential is still difficult and the next general election was not four years.
He said: “Young generations of 18 to 24 cohort are quite pro -label.
“Also, a little more surprising reform than you think.
“Currently, I don’t see harsh data in 16 and 17 -year -old voting – Or really, people who will be 16 or 17 in 2029. It’s a bit strange because these people are currently 12 and 13 years old, so their political views haven’t developed exactly.
“But is there potential when Jeremy Corbyn is 16 and 17 to get the vote?”
Can make politics’Rarving the political map gracefully ‘
Lord Hayward explained that the influence of new young voters is expected to be “very consistent çıkmış throughout England, because the distribution is“ quite flat ”throughout the country. The authority estimated that most election zones will see a “quite average effect ..
Exceptions in the southern coast and in the south west and London – First, these are places that most young people cannot meet, since they can be defined as “ultra -expensive regions, because they are known as“ retirement belts ”, highly elderly areas and second.
Mr O’gan, 16 and 17 -year -old children, only 2 percent of voters, estimated that, “most election zones will not make a difference ultimately,” accepted.
However, he believes that young voters can generally make a significant difference. He said: “In an increasingly fragmented political landscape, votes can help determine the outcome of a handful of strict race throughout the country.”
He claimed that Gaza could be a problem that decides for this young group. – This can be a decisive factor for tight races.
“In the urban seats, where labor is faced with strong independent rivals, those of 16 and 17 years old can help overthrow the balance. All of the youngest election zones in the country are under pressure from a ‘Gaza independent’. In fact, there are seven election zones where the majority of labor on an independent candidate is less than 16 and 17 years old.
“With the fact that politics appears to be more variable, even small changes in voters may have local effects and skillfully reshape the political map over time.”
Basic trends from divided votes to voting
Lord Hayward also summarized some basic tendencies that Britain will see when these new cohort votes voted, especially as “going everywhere and not voting”.
Defining the 16 and 17 -year -old children as “enormous fluidity ,, he said that the first would be likely to disintegrate the votes of the group. “All indicators are that labor will not be a great beneficiary of this age group of those who voters, because the possibility of dividing the votes and votes everywhere is higher.”
Secondly, Lord Hayward envisaged a lower participation from the age of 16 and 17, based on the figures obtained from the 2024 elections. “Participation fell throughout the board of directors during a short period of 10 percent in the last election,” he said. “However, participation was the lowest among the youngest. Therefore, there is no reason to believe that a younger age group will not follow the tendencies just above them as a very low demographic cohort.”
Reducing birth rates has the potential to minimize the impact of new young voters, because this age group is expected to shrink in the coming years.
Independent He contacted the Labor Party for a comment.
