Trump tariffs lead to rising layoffs inside supply chain jobs: Survey

A growing number of supply chain executives say President Donald Trump’s tariffs and related costs are leading to layoffs and diminished confidence in the investments needed to grow their businesses.

Twice as many supply chain executives (32%) are reporting layoffs compared to April (16%), according to a new survey conducted by the Supply Chain Management Association and CNBC.

“Tariffs don’t affect the bottom line. They affect people,” ASCM CEO Abe Eshkenazi said. “We are seeing layoffs as companies try to manage their cost structures. If you don’t have the necessary resources and the knowledge and skills of talented staff, this will have a long-term impact.”

Although the national unemployment rate has only gotten higher rather than rising since April when Trump’s sweeping tariffs were first implemented, employment growth last year was the lowest outside the recession since the early 2000s, according to a December jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. What some are calling a “hiring recession” is characterized by rising long-term unemployment and weak job creation, which has stalled since April.

The majority of respondents (65%) reported at least a 10-15% increase in costs; According to ACSM, this could be a “major shock” that reshapes the budgets, strategies and viability of some businesses. Thirty-four percent of respondents noted an increase in costs of more than 15%.

As businesses across the economy anxiously await a decision from the Supreme Court on the legality and potential for rollback of many of Trump’s tariffs, Eshkenazi said the broader trade impacts won’t be easily reversed.

“The Supreme Court decision may resolve many legal questions, but it cannot resolve many of the operational, financial and human impacts we have seen before,” he said. “Investments are affected because your planning cycles and time horizons are shorter, making it harder for organizations to plan. Right now you’re in a constant firefighting mode as opposed to planning mode,” Eshkenazi said. he added.

The survey of supply chain managers across sectors of the economy was conducted between December 15, 2025 and January 7, 2026, with more than 220 respondents. This was ACSM’s third survey on tariffs in the past year and the first conducted in conjunction with CNBC.

Businesses both large and small told CNBC that even if the court-ordered refunds covered some of the costs from Trump’s trade policy, they would not be able to make up for the time lost due to the drop in productivity due to the additional administrative hours required to prepare paperwork for broad tariffs.

“Navigating tariffs is an administrative burden,” Eshkenazi said. “We spend a lot of time tracking rule changes, validating a lot of code, and trying to figure out the most efficient way to work in the short term without a long-term plan.”

Customs bonds ‘dead money’

In addition to time-consuming paperwork, business owners told CNBC that some costs related to tariffs will not be covered as part of the refund. Baby products company Lalo, which paid limited tariffs before Trump imposed tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, was required to post collateral to be secured by U.S. Customs. customs bonds As a guarantee, the company can pay the tariff bill.

“We’ve never had to do this before,” said Lalo co-founder Michael Wieder. “This was on top of the millions we paid in customs duties. We have hundreds of thousands of dollars held as collateral on our customs bond,” he said.

These capital challenges are not unusual, according to Eshkenazi. “The money in these bonds is essentially dead money,” he said.

The price of customs bonds covers 10% of duties and taxes paid during a consecutive 12-month period. “So if duties and taxes go up, so do customs bonds,” said Lori Mullins, chief operating officer of Rogers & Brown Custom Brokers. Importers are required to provide the bond surety company with audited financial statements from the previous year showing that they have the funds to support the bond amount. “If the importer does not have funds, the bond bond will require collateral and in most cases this is done in the form of a letter of credit. That is why funds remain tied up,” said Mullins.

Normally funds are held by Customs for 314 days until duties paid are reviewed and government approval is received.

During this period, cash invested in bonds from the business does not earn any interest. “I could use this money to expand my business or even keep it in an account that accrues interest. This is taking money from small businesses to use as working capital and sell more products. This is hurting our business,” Wieder said.

Business owners previously told CNBC that it was unrealistic to think they would be completed even if their tariffs were reinstated under the Supreme Court ruling; Many people said they were also on the hook for predatory high-interest loans taken out to pay tariffs.

Eshkenazi said his association’s members told him the money they spend on tariffs and related costs is a tax that drags down supply chains. “You can’t source and requalify your staff overnight,” he said. “This isn’t just about resilience and reacting to the court decision. It’s about having certainty in the U.S. economy and what kind of pricing models they can plan.”

The economic outlook among survey respondents was mixed; 38% of supply chain professionals were negative; 27% neutral; and 35% positive. More than half (56%) are concerned about a recession, but roughly a third of respondents have a neutral or negative view of the economy, resulting in what the ACSM calls a “fuzzy and uncertain picture of the U.S. economy.”

“This disconnect reflects companies’ confusion and lack of confidence in planning for the future,” Eshkenazi said. he said. 56 percent of ACSM members fear a recession, with two-thirds thinking it could start in the second quarter. “This is not good for companies looking to invest,” he added.