Rising UK food prices to reach ‘grim milestone’ by November, new research warns
Food prices in the UK are on track to be 50 per cent higher by November compared to levels at the start of the cost of living crisis in mid-2021, new research has found.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank said the “draconian turning point” would mean the price rise witnessed for nearly two decades before the crisis would occur in just over five years, nearly quadrupling the pace of food inflation.
The combination of extreme weather caused by climate change, global supply disruptions, and exposure to ever-volatile oil and gas markets has increased pressure on the food system.
The analysis shows that the cost of staples such as pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate, eggs and beef has increased by between 50 percent and 64 percent. Olive oil increased by 113 percent.
The increases reflect vulnerability to volatile oil and gas prices, synthetic fertilizer costs and climate impacts such as droughts, floods and heatwaves, both in the UK and key importing regions.
Together, these forces will increase household food bills by an average of £605 over 2022 and 2023, with energy shocks accounting for £244 of this, the ECIU said.
Five recently climate-affected foods – butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee – have been responsible for much of the ongoing pressure on food inflation, with prices for these foods rising four times faster than other foods and drinks.
ECIU food and agriculture analyst Chris Jaccarini said: “Trump’s war in the Middle East will cause shopping bills to rise along with rising oil and gas prices.
“Scientists predict that climate change, combined with the El Niño effect, will make 2027 the hottest year on record, starting this year. Three of the worst recorded harvests in the UK have occurred in the last five years.
“Unless we can achieve net zero emissions to stop climate change and bring balance to the system, food prices will rise even higher, but net zero also means burning less oil and gas, insulating our food system from the kind of price increases we have seen since Russia invaded Ukraine.”
The ECIU said the projected 50 per cent increase would mean many households would continue to feel the pressure well beyond the first phase of the cost of living crisis, with food remaining one of the most visible and unavoidable expenses.
Anna Taylor, chief executive of the Food Foundation, said: “Food prices so high and so rapidly rising are leaving families on their lowest incomes with nowhere to cut but the food on their plates.
“When this happens, people skip meals, children go hungry and diet-related diseases increase, putting parents out of work and increasing pressure on the NHS, which cannot afford it.
“This conflict is the latest shock in a series and there will be more to come. The question for the government is not just how to respond to this crisis, but whether we can build a food system resilient enough to withstand the next crisis.”
The latest inflation figures from Worldpanel by Numerator show that grocery prices are now 3.8 percent higher than a year ago; households have been warned that conflict in the Middle East has not “yet” infiltrated supermarket shelves.
As consumers adjust to higher prices, data from the Waste and Resource Action Program (Wrap) shows that the rate of self-reported waste on four key products – bread, milk, chicken and potatoes – has fallen from 21 per cent to 18.8 per cent since 2024.
Despite this, food waste ranks fifth among key concerns after food prices, nutritional health, animal welfare and processed or ultra-processed foods, Wrap said, which “suggests this is a background concern rather than a top-of-mind issue.”
The top growing concerns since 2024 include pesticide use, how food producers and farmers are treated, genetically modified foods, and hormones, steroids, and antibiotics in foods.
Wrap CEO Catherine David said: “The average family of four spends a whopping £1,000 each year on good edible food that is thrown away.”
