Mets vs Reds betting preview: Why the over 9.5 runs looks like the play in Cincinnati matchup
Monday was not the best day for me and for sports betting. I looked at Spain’s team total and they immediately scored zero goals against inferior opposition. I played a good game with the plus money lost and then split the game to the Athletics while they reviewed the game total on their own. Let’s get back to winning ways when the Mets face the Reds.
At least New York has the Knicks, right? The New York Mets, who are trying to buy a championship in their own way, are below .500 and unlikely to make the postseason. Anything is possible and there is still plenty of time, but there is no denying that this team is seriously underperforming. They have a 32-40 record on the season and 14-22 on the road.
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Francisco Lindor of the New York Mets is on the field during a game against the Cincinnati Reds at Citi Field on July 19, 2025 in New York, NY. (Photos by Michael Mooney/MLB via Getty Images)
The starting pitchers are doing their job. Collectively, the staff has a 3.85 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The hit keeps them at just .230 for the season. Today’s starter will be Kodai Senga, who has some ugly numbers himself but also hasn’t pitched since April, so a lot of those are inflated because he hasn’t done enough to get them down. He pitched 11.2 innings in his first two starts, allowing a total of four earned runs. In his next three starts, he pitched 8.1 innings and allowed 16 earned runs. The Reds’ hitters are just 3-for-20 against Senga.
The Cincinnati Reds are currently wallowing around that .500 record. They finish the season 34-37 and have an 18-18 home record. They made the postseason last year, and if they have any hope of making it this year, they’ll likely need to do it again via a Wild Card berth. I think the Reds are one of those teams that have some pieces but really need a hot streak to get it done. They had one at the beginning of the season and went 20-11. Unfortunately, they are up 14-26 since that overtime.
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New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga stalks a pitch against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Citi Field in New York City on June 12, 2025. (Brad Penner/Imagn Images)
Today, Brady Singer will be the starter in hopes of getting another win in the series. Singer has been a bit of a misfit so far this season with a 2-6 record, 5.61 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He was a little better at home than away. His biggest problem is that he let in 17 people this year, and nine of them came at his home. The Reds have lost Singer’s last seven games. Collectively, the Mets are hitting .241 in 58 at-bats against Singer.
The Reds got the best of the Mets yesterday, scoring 12 unanswered runs and shutting out New York. Cincinnati won the first game of the series and now has a chance to win the overall series, but it won’t be easy against Senga. Singer didn’t do a good job of putting the Reds in position to win games either.
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Elly de la Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds reacts after a wild pitch hit by Miami Marlins relief pitcher Anthony Bender in the ninth inning of a baseball game in Miami on April 7, 2026. (Lynne Sladky/AP)
I don’t know who will be the better pick to win this game. I can make a legitimate case for both. Senga is a better starter when fully healthy, but I don’t know if he’ll pitch three, five or seven here. Even with bad offenses, I think we’re more likely to see a run. Singer will probably give up a bunch and Senga will probably be a little rusty and let a few. Give me over 9.5.
