Millions more homes in Great Britain at risk of flooding, investigation finds | Environment

Millions of homes in England, Scotland and Wales are at risk of more devastating flooding and some towns may have to be abandoned as the climate crisis leaves many areas uninsurable, Guardian research has found.

New analysis from the insurance sector, seen by the Guardian, reveals the extent of anxiety in the sector; bosses warn large areas of residential and commercial property in densely populated areas will be at greater risk.

Separately, experts said some towns may have to be abandoned as homes and businesses struggle to get insurance in areas repeatedly battered by storms and rising sea levels.

Densely populated areas, including London, Manchester and parts of north-east England, are likely to be worst hit. Experts also say London’s flood defenses need to be urgently updated to protect the capital from devastating floods.

“The findings are very clear,” said Jason Storah, head of general insurance for the UK and Ireland at Aviva, which published the analysis. “Millions more properties will be at risk of flooding due to rising temperatures, increased urbanization and inadequate drainage.”

Tenbury Wells, a market town in Worcestershire, has become the first town in the country to find its public buildings uninsurable. The town has historically suffered damaging floods about once a decade, but in the last six years people there have suffered four floods.

“We feel abandoned,” Tenbury council deputy mayor Lesley Davies said. “We are the blueprint for what may happen in the future; there may be other towns approaching this situation, there are many vulnerable towns on rivers everywhere.”

Aviva’s report highlights growing concerns in the insurance industry about the impacts of severe weather events caused by the climate crisis.

Storah said: “We’re not talking about it because we’re waving the flag about climate or sustainability; it has nothing to do with that, our business is all about what’s going on in the environment… we’re in it and we can’t avoid it.”

Aviva analyzed all parliamentary constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales to assess how vulnerable they are to flooding. It found that the number of properties at risk of flooding in England is expected to increase by more than a quarter (27%), from 6.3 million to 8 million, and that the number of properties in areas at high risk of flash floods, which are harder to predict and protect, is likely to increase by up to 66% by mid-century.

He also found:

• Every constituency in Great Britain is predicted to be at increased risk of flooding in the future. In England, 69% of constituencies are likely to see a more than 25% increase in the number of properties at risk of flooding by mid-century. A similar increase is predicted to occur in every region of Wales and Scotland, with many likely to be much worse affected.

• Bermondsey and Old Southwark in London and Skegness in Lincolnshire are predicted to have around 90% of homes at risk of river and coastal flooding by 2050; these are the highest rates in the country.

• Overall, London, Yorkshire and the Humber represent more than half of the top 20 constituencies affected by river and coastal flooding, highlighting that the east of England may be most negatively affected.

• With 14 London constituencies in the top 20, the risk of surface water flooding is likely to be particularly acute in dense urban areas.

• Bournemouth East shows the greatest predicted increase in surface water flood risk due to its low-lying topography and poor drainage.

• In the last decade, 110,000 new homes were built in areas at highest flood risk; This represents one in 13 of new homes built. Aviva calculates that if this trend continues, 115,000 of the 1.5 million new homes planned by the government will be in areas at highest risk of flooding.

Speaking to the Guardian, Emma Boyd, former head of the Environment Agency, said it could be too expensive to build the flood defenses needed to save some areas.

Because it costs so much to maintain homes and businesses, some may have to be abandoned, he said. “I think some of these very difficult decisions are going to have to be made by the government to ensure that the money that is available for flood prevention has the most impact, especially when money is constrained, resources are constrained, given the fiscal constraints, but that is a very difficult political decision for our leaders to make,” he said.

Boyd warned that London was also at high risk and the government needed to work urgently to improve existing defences.

“Many people think they are protected by the Thames Barrier and the different mechanisms along the embankments that protect London from sea level rise and river flooding. [but] “A major project needs to happen in terms of funding, raising the embankment across the River Thames and building a new barrier.”

Some protection is available for households in frequently flooded areas; In a joint government and industry scheme called Flood Re, insurers pay a levy to pool flood risk, allowing them to serve more at-risk households. This plan applies to individual homes rather than business or commercial properties and will end in 2039, when climate-induced flooding is predicted to be more severe.

Dr. from Bayes Business School Mark Andrew said insurance was likely to become more prohibitive, adding: “These pressures will intensify with market-based pricing expected to apply after the Flood Re scheme ends in 2039. For residential properties, this creates a distinct distribution problem, as low-income households are disproportionately concentrated in flood-prone areas and risk being priced out of adequate cover.”

Climate adaptation experts say this underscores why flood insurance should be addressed on a broad scale rather than on individual properties.

Dr. from the Center for Flood Risk and Resilience at Brunel University in London. Carola Koenig said: “Insurance needs to be tackled collectively as a nation. Programs such as Flood Re’s ‘building back better’ initiative allow businesses and homes to be better prepared for the future.”

He said homeowners and businesses should control the current flood risk and “adapt their buildings by, for example, installing flood gates, tiling floors or elevating electrical outlets at ground level”.

Professor of hydrology at the University of Reading, Dr. Jess Neumann said the government wasn’t doing enough to protect people and businesses from flooding. “The future will demand more investment, more support and more communication from government to prepare people for flooding and manage the impacts when the worst happens.”

He said traditional “hard engineering” approaches such as sea walls, river defenses and flood barriers, which are still preferred in many places, should be supplemented by more nature-based solutions.

“We cannot continue to build defenses longer and higher to cope with larger and more frequent floods. Working with natural processes such as reconnecting rivers to floodplains, restoring wetlands and planting woodlands to intercept rainfall has the benefits of reducing flood risk as well as improving our natural environment.”