‘Mind-blowing’ El Niño stuns scientists. Why are they so concerned?
The most effective climate system in the world It’s baring its teeth in the Pacific.
Strengthening El Niño Natural warming of seawater affecting the air around the planet is breaking daily hot water records.
Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, wrote that not only is it “likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began, it could result in the strongest event by a truly mind-boggling margin.” In a post for The Climate Brinka Substack blog, in early July.
We don’t yet know what this will mean for weather around the world over the next 12 to 18 months, but climate scientists say El Niño’s effects on global temperatures will increase the chances of 2026 being the warmest year on record and increasing the chances of 2027 being the warmest year.
Meanwhile, World leaders voice concerns About the possibility of droughts, heavy rainfall events and heat waves. (However, it is worth noting that not all El Niño effects are malevolent. Climate patterns are expected to change widely. Tame the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season.)
Economy: Experts fear ‘Super El Niño’ will have alarming financial impact
The effects of El Niño are already being felt in the United States, suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity and bringing unusual heat and humidity to parts of California, one of the states most vulnerable to El Niño’s effects.
Hausfather and his Berkeley Earth colleague Robert Rohde wrote that sea surface temperatures have already exceeded the threshold that typically signals a very strong event. Monthly climate briefing on July 23.
The warming trend of sea surface temperatures in the El Niño region along the equator is “remarkable” and is developing faster than the 1997-98 El Niño, Hausfather wrote earlier.
NOAA data shows water temperatures in the region have never been this high in July, based on modern records.
A sea surface temperature chart from Climate Central, using NOAA data displayed by the University of Maine Climate Reanalyzer, shows just how warm water temperatures have been this summer.
Why are scientists worried?
Although El Niño is a naturally occurring event, concerns are growing. amplified effects combined with climate change is causing higher-than-normal temperatures around the world.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, said the world is looking at an “unprecedented combination” between a strong El Niño and rising temperatures resulting from climate change. That will impact what El Niño actually means in the U.S. and around the world, Swain said.
Previous El Niño events temporarily increased global temperatures by about 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit, he said. The earth will now experience additional warming in addition to the effects of long-term human-caused warming.
“A potentially record-breaking El Niño on top of record-breaking global temperatures is a pretty big deal,” he said.
“There’s a good chance this year or next year or both will set a new record for warm average global temperature,” Swain said. “If we don’t get there this year, we will almost certainly get there next year.”
Sea surface temperatures in the El Niño region of the Pacific have been up to 6 degrees warmer than normal so far; This situation is several times more likely due to climate change. According to Climate Central, A non-profit climate science and communications organization.
Hausfather and Rohde wrote: “What is most striking is how powerful this event was predicted to be.” briefings. The duo concluded that the vast majority of computer models predicted an El Niño exceeding the record event of 2015-2016, accounting for background ocean warming. “It is more likely to be the strongest El Niño ever observed.”
What can we expect from El Niño effects?
A “very strong” El Niño could affect weather worldwide.
“El Niño will bring an extra increase to global temperatures” Alvaro Silva said: World Meteorological Organization scientist. “We know that global temperatures normally reach record highs during El Niño years.”
A strong El Niño in the U.S. means “a pretty strong increase in the jet stream,” Swain said. “This could result in more intense and more frequent winter storms across California, the interior Southwest and southern states.”
“Some of California’s wettest winters occurred during some of the strongest El Niños,” he said.
El Niño may increase hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific and Suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Because of its impact on hydrological cycles, El Niño can cause devastating floods in some regions and severe drought and wildfires in others. It could also disrupt fisheries and food production and cause economic losses of trillions of dollars.
“Current estimates suggest this could be the most expensive El Niño on record,” Justin Mankin, a Dartmouth associate professor of geography who studies the economic impacts of El Niño, recently told USA TODAY via email.
Drier than average conditions are likely, especially in Central America and the Caribbean, as well as North and South America, the United Nations said. Drier weather conditions are also expected in Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia during the monsoon season, but wetter conditions are expected in East Africa during the rainy season from September to December.
Sea surface temperatures in the El Niño region and elsewhere in the Pacific Ocean are several degrees warmer than normal, as shown in this map of anomalies from Climate Center, based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Uncertainties regarding El Niño forecast continue
While signals and models point to a strong El Niño, that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be the strongest on record when it is expected to peak later this year, said climate scientist Michael Mann, director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and Media at the University of Pennsylvania.
“It’s clear we’re heading for a historically strong event,” Mann said, but “there are still a variety of scenarios that we can see.”
Mann explained that El Niño is an inherently chaotic event in the climate system that does not always respond in simple, proportionate ways. Their largest effects come from their connections to the wider atmosphere, such as trade winds and upper atmospheric winds, but these teleconnections can be difficult to predict.
Small differences in conditions, such as ocean temperatures or trade winds, can change what happens next. For example, the ultimate effects of El Niño depend on factors such as where maximum warming occurs in the equatorial Pacific in the fall and early winter.
Part of the uncertainty stems from the models being in “uncharted waters,” Hausfather wrote. The models “have never been validated in this region.”
It’s unusual to see this kind of agreement among the most powerful predictive models, but what that means remains to be seen, Swain said. “Every event has a different flavor and this one will undoubtedly have a different flavor than we have seen before.”
Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice are USA TODAY national reporters with decades of experience writing about weather and climate. Reach them at dpulver@usatoday.com and drice@usatoday.com..
This article first appeared on USA TODAY: ‘Mind-blowing’ El Niño has stunned scientists. Why are they so worried?
