Monsoon deficit and India’s agricultural vulnerability during kharif season

Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on June 23, 2026 that this year’s monsoon has delivered 43% below normal rainfall for the month of June. A high-level meeting was held with State-level counterparts to take preparedness measures and prepare emergency plans.

In this context, here are some basic measurements that will shed light on the progress of the monsoon, India’s agricultural characteristics and potential risks in case of lack of rains.

monsoon advance

As of June 24, 2026, either deficiency or major deficiency in rains were recorded in some States. This deficiency ranged from 20% to 81%. In Rajasthan alone, 20% excess rainfall was recorded.

Irrigation

Given a possible shortfall in rains, looking at India’s irrigation levels may indicate access to water during the kharif season. The overall net irrigated area as a percentage of net cropped area has been increasing since 1950. By 2023-24, 59.3% of the net cropped area is irrigated and the rest is rain-fed.

However, the irrigated area varies depending on the type of product. Water-intensive crops, such as sugarcane, have high irrigation levels relative to the area planted. Legumes, on the other hand, have lower irrigation levels and are mostly rain-fed.

Following a high-level meeting of State Agriculture Ministers, the government advised farmers to switch from water-consuming crops such as sugarcane to crops that require less water for a shorter period of time, such as pulses, as a way to cope with less rainfall this year.

While legumes do not need access to water as much or for as long as other crops such as rice, wheat or sugarcane, kharif season legumes such as green gram require a single “life-saving irrigation” at the early pod formation stage. NITI Ayog study. Moreover, the same study noted: “The prominence of rain-fed agriculture, combined with inadequate irrigation infrastructure, makes legume cultivation extremely vulnerable to climatic variables.”

However, although irrigation plays an important role in ensuring healthy pulse crop yields, farmers point to lower prices during harvest and high input costs as more pressing problems.

reservoir levels

Reservoir levels in five regions of the country ranged between 19% and 32%, according to data from the Central Water Commission. Except for the Southern and Eastern regions, these levels are above what is normally stored in reservoirs at this time of year. However, current reservoir levels in these two regions are 14% and 19% lower than normal, respectively.

State-level differences

A. Care Edge Ratings report It showed that buffer stocks at the national level and a reduction in the importance of agriculture in total Gross Value Added may help soften the economic impact, but some States may be vulnerable due to low irrigation coverage, dependence on water-intensive crops and the share of crop-based production in agricultural Gross Value Added.

The rating firm has come up with an Index based on six metrics: (i) Irrigation coverage, (ii) Share of agriculture in overall GVA; (iii) Share of non-crop activities in agricultural GVA; (iv) Share of water-intensive crops (rice and sugarcane) in Kharif production; (v) mean historical precipitation deviation from LPA; and (vi) Regional reservoir levels.

Based on these parameters, States were assigned a weighted score from 0 to 100; higher scores meant higher resilience to monsoon variability.

The report stated that Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are more vulnerable. These States are more exposed due to lower irrigation coverage, dependence on water-intensive crops and limited diversification in allied agricultural activities.