Monsoon likely to set in over Kerala on June 4, says IMD in latest forecast

The southwest monsoon is expected to move into Kerala on June 4, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday, June 2, 2026.

This update comes after the IMD, in a statement on May 29, admitted that rain is unlikely to reach Kerala within the four-day period after the forecast date of May 26. The ‘normal’ date for the arrival of monsoon in the state was initially fixed as June 1.

Last year, the monsoon began over Kerala on May 24; It is the earliest arrival since 2009. Although the arrival date does not correlate with the amount of rainfall, the latter is a cause for concern this year as IMD and other weather agencies have warned of ‘below normal’ rainfall.

“Conditions are favorable for further advance of the southwest monsoon over parts of southwestern and southeastern Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, parts of southwestern, west central, east central and northeastern Bay of Bengal and remaining parts of southeastern Bay of Bengal in the next 2-3 days,” the agency said in its daily bulletin on Monday, June 1, 2026. he said.

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IMD’s operational forecasts regarding the date of monsoon onset in Kerala for the last 21 years (2005-2025) have proven to be accurate except for the year 2015, the agency said in a fact sheet. ‘True’ here means that the monsoon arrives within a four-day window after the forecast date.

The agency has also reduced its southwest monsoon forecast this year to 90% of the Long Term Average (LPA) from 92% predicted in April.

If the LPA sees less than 90% of its rainfall during the monsoon season, the IMD classifies it as “deficient”.

IMD said one reason behind below-normal rainfall this year could be the emergence of El Nino conditions in India, which leads to less rain during the monsoon season.

It was stated that currently neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific region. The report stated that El Nino conditions will be weak in June and moderate to strong in September.

With PTI inputs