More uncertainty for farmers as El Nino declared
Ahead of several potentially dry and hot months, the late autumn rain was particularly welcome for farmer Paul Manwaring.
Reasonable pasture growth after a dry start to the year will serve the modest Cootamundra livestock operation well, with the El Niño climate pattern confirmed in the Pacific.
Australia’s weather is driven by more than just El Nino-Southern Oscillation patterns, and while no two events are ever the same, El Niño has historically been associated with less rain and warmer temperatures throughout winter and spring in eastern regions.
While his south-west NSW property is well positioned for a drier spell, Mr Manwaring told AAP the long-term outlook still complicates his forward planning.
The beef farmer was considering leasing more country, but livestock prices could become unstable amid forecasts for less rain.
El Niño announcements can trigger short-term declines in livestock prices as sales areas become flooded due to dry conditions and then prices rise again as herds decline.
The thought of servicing rent payments while negotiating fluctuating cattle prices was enough to make Mr Manwaring think twice.
Rose Roche, leader of the Digital Innovations group in CSIRO’s Farming System programme, said drought was not inevitable in an El Niño year.
Dr Roche confirmed the risk was higher, but droughts tend to increase following prolonged periods of below-average rainfall.
The worst impacts for farmers – lower crop yields, poorer pasture growth and reduced dam levels – result from longer periods of drought, often over several years.
El Niños can last up to two years but usually accelerate in the winter and spring and begin to decay in the fall.
“This is a signal,” he told AAP.
“This suggests we could be heading into a drier, warmer winter and spring, so keep a closer eye on prices, seasonal outlooks and seasonal forecasts.”
“Think about your business planning, but there is no need to panic.”
He added that El Niño declarations are much more than just informing agricultural decisions.
For example, a cattle breeder with strong pasture growth may postpone restocking early because prices may rise later.
The Bureau of Meteorology officially declared the start of El Nino on Tuesday, citing the natural weather pattern triggered by the warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Forecasts show a “strong to very strong” El Nino approaching, but a strong system may not mean more severe weather in Australia.
While strong El Ninos are associated with rather mild and isolated dry conditions, mild events (neutral and even La Nina years) have occurred, as well as severe wildfires and droughts.
Australia’s weather is also affected by a number of other factors, including similar events in the Indian Ocean, as well as climate change, which climate scientists say could worsen the effects of El Niño.
Latest long term forecasts Data from the bureau, which brings together all the key climate factors, points to below-average rainfall in parts of southern and eastern Australia over the next three months and above-average daytime temperatures in the south of the tropics.
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