Could 2026 be the year Waymo goes mainstream?

00:00 Speaker A

Let’s talk about robotaxi because you think 2026 could actually be a big year for one of Tesla’s biggest rivals and Google’s Waymo. So, why will 2026 be such an important year?

00:10 pras

We’re starting anecdotally, right? I was in Austin, Texas for vacation and they are everywhere. Waymo’s are everywhere, dropping people off and picking them up.

00:20 Speaker A

People use them. It’s easy.

00:21 pras

Yeah, I must have seen about 100 of them, and I saw one Tesla robotaxi, right?

00:25 Speaker A

Wow.

00:25 pras

Now, here’s why

00:26 Speaker A

100 but. This is something different than what you see here in the northeast.

00:29 pras

Not yet, right? That was then and then they were in Los Angeles. I was in Los Angeles last summer, they are all over Los Angeles. So they’ve actually grown in places like San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Austin and Atlanta, where they actually operate, right? They operate these areas without safety drivers. completely. There is no one in the car. It’s nothing but an empty car driving around. So they actually do this and get paid for it, right? They will expand to Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando in 2026, and will enter full service in early 2026, and will expand to Detroit, DC, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis. They’re testing in St. Louis.

01:05 pras

Even New York City, London and Tokyo are testing there. We’ll see if this happens. But you know, very deep, densely populated urban areas, sorry, are really difficult for robotaxi. So this is happening.

01:18 pras

Now for the numbers. By the end of this year, Waymo was doing 250,000 rides a week, right?

01:24 Speaker A

Wow.

01:25 pras

They want to make one and I’m sorry and 20 million during the time they operate. They want to make a million trips a week by the end of the year.

01:31 Speaker A

Can this be done now? Do you think they can do this?

01:32 pras

So at the end of next year. So that’s four times.

01:34 pras

I mean, if the deployments go well. Now you said, can they do this? This is a good question because they need to increase production of their cars. They produce their electric vehicles with Jaguar I-PACE and the Chinese model Zeekr. But that costs money. And Tesla doesn’t have the ability to just start cars, right? So that’s a potential headwind. Second, what about regulations and security? You know, sometimes some municipalities don’t want to have it. Or you have a major security issue like Cruise did in San Francisco and it takes them out of the game. So these are some of the headwinds they’re facing. However

02:04 pras

That aside, 2026 could be a big year for them.

02:07 Speaker A

Yes, and you mentioned your story that’s currently on Yahoo Finance’s site about Tesla still operating its ride-hailing service with gated passengers. And these are only in Austin and San Francisco and since mid-2025. So while there was a lot of excitement for Tesla’s robotaxi, especially in June, it looks like they’re behind the game compared to Google’s Waymo.

02:24 pras

Yeah, yeah, I mean, the number of vehicles is also pretty low compared to what Waymo is doing, right? Now Tesla says they will expand to Las Vegas. Sorry, sorry Nevada and then Phoenix. This is the next points for them. People like Ives think there will be 30 more markets by the end of next year. I think that’s overly optimistic because we haven’t even heard what the next markets will be. Austin and San Francisco haven’t even had a safe driver yet. So, there are a lot of big ifs, but of course if they actually do this, that’s the big win.

02:47 Speaker A

Right. Wedbush’s Dan Ives always thinks Tesla is on the rise. Pras Subramanian, thank you so much for joining me in the studio. Appreciate it.

02:51 pras

Yes. Thank you.