Nancy Guthrie alive when abducted, retired FBI profiler analysis says

TUCSON, Ariz. — Blood spatter on Nancy Guthrie’s front porch indicates she was still alive when she was forced from her home in Tucson’s Catalina Mountains by a loner, according to a retired FBI profiler. He also believes the masked suspect made enough mistakes for his identity to eventually be revealed.

“At least we know he was alive at the time,” said Jim Clemente, who spent 22 years with the office.

This is based on blood work on his front porch. There was a condensation of round droplets near the front door, followed by a trail that tapered toward the driveway.

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“He must have aspirated and coughed up blood with his face very close to the ground, and I don’t believe that would have happened if there were two people carrying him at that point,” he told Fox News Digital.

Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of “Today” co-anchor Savannah Guthrie, is believed to have been abducted from her home around 2:30 a.m. on Feb. 1. For days, there were few clues about who was responsible until the FBI and Google recovered footage from a Nest doorbell camera showing a masked man with gloves and a holstered gun arriving at her front steps the night she disappeared.

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Savannah Guthrie visits the Today show at Rockefeller Plaza in New York City on March 5, 2026. (Charles Sykes/Invision/AP)

He is described as having above average height and build. He was wearing a black Ozark Trail backpack, long sleeves, gloves and a ski mask. And almost 100 days later, his identity remains unknown.

Clemente told Fox News Digital that the video is still full of clues.

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Clemente said that although the suspect was believed to have scouted the area beforehand, he resorted to using vegetation to cover the Nest camera lens and potentially shed a beard via a balaclava.

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“I believe in the process of doing this, he revealed what looked like a tattoo on his wrist, which would not have been revealed if he had been adequately prepared for the camera to be there,” he said.

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Aerial drone footage shows Nancy Guthrie’s home and land in Tucson, Arizona, on Tuesday, February 3, 2026. Nancy Guthrie, the mother of ‘Today’ show host Savannah Guthrie, is believed to have been abducted from inside on February 1. (Fox Flight Crew/Fox News)

“So that tells me he’s not a sophisticated criminal. He was bungling his way through this and made other mistakes, and I believe those mistakes led directly to his capture.”

Clemente said investigators kept details about the home’s interior secret, but some leaked and they painted a story.

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“I believe that means he threatened her with his gun while he was by her bed,” she told Fox News Digital. “He got her to come downstairs and the front door was where she realized she was going to take me and it was very dangerous and I had to fight. And so she did.”

A gunman is seen tampering with a Google Nest camera at Nancy Guthrie’s front door in Tucson, Arizona, on February 1, 2026, the morning she disappeared. (FBI)

The doorbell video does not show Guthrie being taken from his home, but blood was clearly visible on the stone pavement. The camera itself was missing when deputies arrived the next morning. But Clemente said the fact that the FBI was still able to recover the video probably shocked the kidnapper and that someone in his orbit should have been able to pick up on the signs.

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The FBI released two images taken from Nancy Guthrie’s Nest doorbell camera showing a masked man wearing gloves on his porch. It is unclear whether both photos show the same person. (Courtesy of the FBI)

“I believe that because of all the mistakes this man made, his incompetence in this matter, and his unprofessional behavior, he displayed a great deal of stress when the footage was first released,” Clemente said. “Anyone around him should have noticed this change in behavior and therefore potentially be able to identify him.”

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An unidentified hair sample was also seized from the house. The sheriff’s department initially sent it to a private lab in Florida. After 11 weeks, the laboratory there sent the file to the FBI for further analysis.

A member of the Pima County Sheriff’s Department stands outside the home of Nancy Guthrie, the missing mother of “Today” host Savannah Guthrie, on Feb. 10, 2026, in Tucson, Arizona. (Ty ONeil/AP Photo)

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“If this is a hair belonging to the criminal, then that will lead to his identification,” Clemente said. “They will bear his name.”

There is a total reward of more than $1.2 million for information that solves the case.

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To remain anonymous, contact Tucson’s 88-Crime tip line at (520) 882-7463.

The family also urges anyone with information to call 1-800-CALL-FBI.