Navy tests Hormuz blockade as expert says U.S. military prepares for round 2 and could degrade Iran’s hold over the strait to a ‘manageable level’
Ceasefire talks between the US and Iran have begun in Pakistan, but a potential military conflict between the two countries is already on the horizon.
On Saturday, US Navy ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in a maneuver that was not coordinated with Iran. Sources told AxiosThis marks the first such move since the war began six weeks ago.
The ships crossed the strait and entered the Persian Gulf, then returned to Arabia. SeaThe report stated that a US official said the focus was on freedom of navigation.
A. Statement from US Central Command He confirmed that two destroyers had passed through the strait to determine mine-clearing conditions, adding that underwater unmanned aerial vehicles would also join the effort.
“Today, we began the process of creating a new gateway and will soon share this safe path with the maritime industry to promote the free flow of commerce,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, Commander of Central Command.
However, Iran declared this a violation of the ceasefire. The source told Bloomberg The Navy destroyers were forced to turn back after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a drone towards them.
Also on Saturday, President Donald Trump sent He wrote on Truth Social that the United States “has begun the process of clearing the Strait of Hormuz.” Meanwhile, three oil supertankers They passed through the narrow waterway in what represented the biggest day of oil outflows from Hormuz since Iran closed the passage through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes before the war.
Trump paused his war against Iran for two weeks while talks continued. But the ceasefire remains fragile as hostilities continue and Iran maintains tight control of the strait.
At the same time, the US military continues to send more combat forces to the region. A third aircraft carrier, as well as thousands of sailors and paratroopers, are expected to arrive later this month. More large-scale cruise missiles are also flowing into the Middle East.
“I think we’re getting ready for round 2,” said Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy. he told CNBC on Thursday. “But as we work on Iran’s ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, which unfortunately we started too late, but we’re doing it now, Iran’s influence is starting to erode. And I think the conditions for a real ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, that is, the full reopening, will be stronger later this month than they are now.”
He compared weakening Iran’s threats to a game of whack-a-mole, listing anti-ship missile launchers, small fast attack boats, unmanned aerial vehicles, submarines and long-range artillery.
McNally, who previously served as President George W. Bush’s energy advisor in the White House, also pointed out that the United States has reduced Iran’s stock of underwater mines that can be used to close the strait.
“This may not be widely reported, but I believe the US military has been focused on eliminating these moles for the past week and weakening Iran’s capability,” he added. “You may not be able to get rid of it completely, but you can reduce Iran’s ability to intercept shipping to a manageable level; that’s when insurance can come into play, escorts can come into play, and people can start to take action.”
For now, Iran’s missiles and drones are enough to scare ships away, giving Tehran effective control. Although very few ships were allowed to pass, this was done very selectively and required a toll of approximately $2 million.
Iran is trying to formalize this “toll booth” in ceasefire talks, and Trump even speculates that the United States could enter into a joint venture with the Islamic republic to collect the tolls.
However, Gulf countries, which export their oil and natural gas through Hormuz, have signaled that they will not tolerate Iran’s control of the strait. Meanwhile, Wall Street warned that this would also threaten the US dollar’s dominance in global trade.
One Interview with India’s Times Now newspaper On Wednesday, McNally said allowing Iran to rule the strait would set a dangerous precedent that would encourage similar behavior in other parts of the world.
“This would be a disruption of global order, trade and stability,” he said. “It’s hard for me to imagine that the United States will end this conflict by empowering Iran and leaving it with the ability to extort not just tolls but other concessions such as diplomatic concessions, foreign policy concessions, military concessions.”
This story first appeared on: Fortune.com
