New Jersey governor race tightens as Ciattarelli campaigns in south Jersey
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WILDWOOD, N.J. – Driving down Route 40 in southern New Jersey, you remember why it’s called the Garden State. For Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli, these lush green fields and small Victorian towns are both an opportunity and a challenge.
Currently, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill has a nearly five-point lead in the poll averages. But in 2024, when polls showed President Donald Trump losing New Jersey by double digits, he lost by just six points. Ciattarelli himself beat poll expectations even as he lost the 2021 governor’s race.
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Simply put — and both campaigns know this — if today’s polls fail like recent ones, Ciattarelli may already be ahead.
On Friday, the Republican candidate will headline a rally in the southern coastal town of Wildwood that will include local officials and conservative figures such as Jack Posobiec and Scott Presler.
The event not only underscores South Jersey’s importance in the race, but also highlights the level of enthusiasm and voter interest Republicans need to increase turnout in this mostly rural and exurban district.
Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli face off in the gubernatorial debate as they compete to become New Jersey’s next governor. (Heather Khalifa/AP Photo)
In deep-sea enclaves like Newark or Hoboken, a pollster might knock on 100 doors on a single block in an effort to get out the vote. And make no mistake: Public sector unions supporting Sherrill will do just that, in addition to driving voters to the polls.
But in much of Cape May County, that’s impossible. The houses are very far apart and the land is very sparsely populated.
This may not be the only way to overcome this field game disadvantage, but one of the best is voter enthusiasm. This enthusiasm can also motivate voters to go to the polls, although it may be slightly less than what a volunteer could do.
On that front, Ciattarelli has received some good news, with a recent Fox News poll showing that 50% of his supporters are enthusiastic about the election; by contrast, Sherrill’s was 42%.
In Wednesday night’s debate, the last of the race, Ciattarelli worked hard to stay positive and focused on issues like lowering energy prices (perhaps the biggest concern on voters’ minds) and improving infrastructure and education.
Tellingly, the highlight of Sherrill’s performance was the outlandish accusation that his rival was responsible for the deaths of “tens of thousands” of New Jerseyans because of a medical publishing company where he once owned printed materials on the painkiller.
Billboard at the Trump rally in Wildwood declaring that historic blue New Jersey is “Trump Country.” (Image Direct for Fox News Digital)
The accusation may be stupid, but the tactic is not. Ugly campaigns with mud thrown everywhere dampen voter enthusiasm, and that’s often a recipe for a Democratic victory in New Jersey.
The other good news for Ciattarelli is that he has made this a close race with almost a month to go. He had a late surge in the unsuccessful 2021 campaign and came up just short. We saw something similar in the 2022 New York gubernatorial race across the Hudson River when Lee Zeldin’s late push wasn’t enough to overcome Gov. Kathy Hochul.
This time, Ciattarelli has a competitive month-long race to sell his vision to the people of the Garden State; not to convince them that he has a chance like he did before, but to show them that he can make the state a better place.
The event, to be held Friday night in Wildwood, N.J., will pay tribute to conservative leader Charlie Kirk, who was assassinated in Utah on September 10. (Photo: Michael Ho Wai Lee/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) (Getty)
Finally, Sherrill’s TV ads so far have focused almost exclusively on tying his opponent to Trump. A few weeks ago this probably seemed like money well spent.
But today, Trump stands on the verge of achieving peace in the Middle East and the release of hostages held by Hamas; These are achievements for which even some of his harshest critics give him grudging credit.
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In this environment, Ciattarelli’s “I like Trump, but I’m not Trump” approach may bear fruit in the elections. Voters who view Trump’s presidency as a disaster will never vote Republican, but the number of such voters appears to be dwindling.
I will be at the rally on Friday and there will be a memorial service for Charlie Kirk. We’ll see how much excitement the event adds to Ciattarelli’s campaign.
In May 2020, Trump held a rally in Wildwood that drew unexpectedly large crowds; At the time, his return to the White House still seemed a long shot. It brought vitality to his campaign.
That day in Jersey was a turning point for Trump. On Friday, on the same beaches of Wildwood, Ciattarelli will seek similar excitement.
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