USA

News Analysis: How the Saudi crown prince went from pariah to feted White House guest

BEIRUT — Seven years ago he was virtually persona non grata, and any connection with him was considered kryptonite among the US political and business elite for his alleged role in the murder of a Washington Post columnist and Saudi critic.

But when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrived in Washington this week, he cemented a remarkable comeback, positioning himself as the linchpin of a new regional order in the Middle East and his country as a key partner in America’s AI-driven future.

During what amounted to a state visit, the crown prince, Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, was given the literal red carpet treatment: a marine band, flag-waving horsemen and a squadron of F-35s in the skies; a black tie dinner in the prince’s honor attended by many businessmen; a US-Saudi Investment Forum at the Kennedy Center the next day.

Throughout, Bin Salman (or MBS as many call him) has proven to be a keen executor of the transactional style of politics favored by President Trump.

President Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman walk down the Colonnade on their way to the Oval Office of the White House on Tuesday.

(Brendan Smialowski / AFP via Getty Images)

It fulfilled Trump’s demand, first voiced at the Riyadh edition of the US-Saudi Forum in May, that the kingdom’s US investment commitments be increased from $600 million to almost $1 trillion.

The prince managed to mollify Trump in his oft-repeated call for Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords, which brokered normalization deals with Israel that the president brokered during his first term; even though he does not change anything from his long-stated position that establishing ties with Israel should be accompanied by steps towards a Palestinian state – an outcome that most of Israel’s political class rejects.

“We believe it’s a good thing to have good relations with all Middle Eastern countries, and we want to be part of the Abraham Accords. But we also want to make sure we provide a clear path.” [to a] Two-state solution,” Bin Salman said.

“We want peace with the Israelis. We want peace with the Palestinians, we want their peaceful coexistence,” he added.

President Trump welcomed Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, to the White House.

In Saudi Arabia, the trip was heralded as a decisive victory for the prince. Saudi state media boasted about the country’s emergence as an important non-NATO ally for the United States and the signing of the so-called Strategic Defense Agreement as an indication of Riyadh’s centrality in American strategic thinking.

This touting came despite little clarity about what the agreement actually contained: Its text was not published and was only mentioned in passing in a White House “fact sheet”; in this document, he emphasized that Saudi Arabia would “buy American” by purchasing significant quantities of tanks, missiles and F-35s; The latter will be the first time the United States’ most advanced jet has been sold to an Arab country.

According to the White House, Saudi Arabia will also be given access to world-class artificial intelligence chips that will allow it to leverage abundant land and energy resources to build data centers and will also “protect U.S. technology from foreign influence.”

Talks, stalled for a decade due to previous administrations’ concerns about Riyadh’s civilian nuclear program, have produced a framework that theoretically allows Saudi Arabia to build nuclear power plants. U.S. officials say uranium enrichment, which in theory would enable weaponization, is not part of the agreement.

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud and President Trump watch over an overpass.

On the regional political front, Bin Salman received a promise from Trump to broker an end to the war in Sudan.

The visit capped bin Salman’s dramatic recovery from the nadir of his reputation seven years ago.

At the time, his image as a fearless reformer who reversed bans on women driving and sterilized the country’s notorious religious police was already crumbling after he tried to silence not only foreign dissidents but also anyone at home who questioned Vision 2030, his far-reaching (and hugely expensive) plan to transform Saudi Arabia.

Then came the 2018 strangulation and dismemberment in Türkiye of Saudi insider-turned-moderate critic and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is seen in a vehicle.

Trump appeared more inclined to side with the prince, who denied any involvement in the murder, but the CIA said in a leaked report that it had great confidence in the prince. He ordered the assassination of Khashoggi.

Relations with Bin Salman, once Washington’s darling in the Middle East, have become toxic. International companies took action to withdraw from the kingdom. Politicians made it clear he was not welcome. Then-candidate Joe Biden vowed to make the Saudi government a “pariah.”

As geopolitics, energy concerns and the turbulent Middle East forced Biden to soften his rejectionist stance, the prince gradually backed away from his more combative policies.

In 2022, Biden visited the prince and gave him a lukewarm jab to persuade him to lower energy prices.

The same year, Riyadh brokered a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine. A deal brokered by China later enabled the prince to calm his country’s stormy diplomatic relations with Iran. Just last month, it was reported that he was working behind the scenes to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

The White House visit appeared to solidify his comeback, but little of what was promised was a done deal.

First, it is an open question whether Saudi Arabia can raise $1 trillion, equivalent to 80 percent of its annual GDP and more than double its foreign exchange reserves.

More importantly, the prince did not specify when the money would be deposited.

Tim Callen, an economist and former International Monetary Fund chief of mission to Saudi Arabia, said that although the investment commitment was large, “how much and over what period of time is completely unclear.”

Callen added that Saudi Arabia has also pulled back on government spending due to falling oil prices, forcing it to scale back many of its gigaprojects.

“The amount of money available to implement all these projects and investments has shrunk compared to 2022 and 2023,” he said.

“My view is that things will move forward on both the investment and trade side. [between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia] “because there are mutual economic interests between the two countries,” he said. But in the short term, he added, $1 trillion “is too big a number for the economy of Saudi Arabia.”

It will likely be years before we see F-35s on Saudi airstrips. Congress must approve F-35 sales, and some opposition may arise if they are thought to jeopardize Israel’s qualitative military superiority.

Trump, flanked by the prince on Tuesday, said Israel, the only country allowed to use certain proprietary technologies in the F-35 program, would “wait for Saudi Arabia to receive lower-caliber aircraft.”

“I don’t think that makes you very happy,” he said to the prince.

“As far as I’m concerned,” Trump added, “I think [Israel and Saudi Arabia] “They are both at the level they need to be at the top of the line.”

But Richard Aboulafia, managing director and aviation analyst at AeroDynamic Advisory, said the biggest obstacle may be Saudi Arabia’s connections with China.

Saudi security forces stand ready under the portrait of Saudi Arabia's crown prince Mohammed bin Salman.

In recent years, Saudi Arabia has conducted military exercises with the Chinese navy and maintains Chinese-made weapons in its armed forces. Aboulafia said ensuring that the aircraft’s capabilities were ignored presented “a different set of challenges.” Similar concerns thwarted attempts by the United Arab Emirates to purchase the jet, the official added.

Another problem is that the aircraft delivery backlog means another buyer will have to give up production slots in favor of Saudi Arabia.

The key to bin Salman’s full return to the United States was Trump’s treatment in the White House.

When a reporter asked the Prince about Khashoggi’s murder, it was Trump who vociferously defended him, calling Khashoggi “highly controversial.”

Pointing to the crown prince, Trump said, “Many people did not like the gentleman you mentioned. Whether you like him or not, some things happen, but he had no knowledge about it.”