EXPLAINED | A new power in Dhaka: Will BNP’s win take Bangladesh into a new geopolitical era? | India News

Bangladesh created a political earthquake. The overwhelming victory of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) puts an end to nearly two decades of unilateral rule and opens the door to a new era in Dhaka that could redraw the diplomatic map of South Asia.

The region is closely watching the shift in power after years of Sheikh Hasina’s rule. India, Pakistan and China have deep interests in Bangladesh’s future. The question now is whether the rise of Tarique Rahman is not just a change of government but also signals a reset of alliances in the Bay of Bengal.

a decisive authority

The Election Commission officially confirmed the result by publishing the official gazette of elected members on Saturday. Preliminary results showed the BNP and its allies won at least 212 of the 299 seats in parliament. The opposition Jamaat-e-Islami and its partners won 77 votes.

To many observers, this was the first truly competitive election in Bangladesh in almost two decades. This marked a clear break from Hasina’s era, which ended when mass uprisings in 2024 sent her into exile in India.

The victory gives 60-year-old Tariq Rahman a strong mandate and a challenging foreign policy environment.

Shortly after the results were announced, the prime ministers of both India and Pakistan offered their congratulations, signaling how closely the region was watching Dhaka’s next steps. The result is widely described as “a new milestone in the development of bilateral relations with India and Pakistan”.

Are relations with India being re-established?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took swift action. Posting on X, he wrote that India “will continue to support a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh” and added that Rahman’s win “shows the confidence of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership.” He later spoke to Rahman on the phone.

“As two close neighbors with deep-rooted historical and cultural ties, I reaffirmed India’s commitment to the peace, progress and prosperity of both our peoples,” Modi said.

New Delhi had developed particularly close relations with Hasina, seeing Bangladesh as central to its rivalry with China in South Asia. However, after his fall, relations deteriorated sharply. India’s refusal to extradite Hasina, who was sentenced to death by the Bangladesh International Crimes Tribunal for her handling of deadly protests in 2024, has deepened tensions.

But India has begun to adapt to the new reality. Earlier this year, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar attended the funeral of Rahman’s mother, former prime minister Khaleda Zia, signaling that he was open to ties with the future BNP government.

Yet difficult problems remain. Water sharing disputes on rivers like the Teesta remain unresolved. Attacks carried out by Indian forces on the border continue to increase anger. Bangladesh also runs a significant trade deficit with India.

Rahman faces pressure at home to adopt a tougher tone. Many young Bangladeshis accuse India of excessive interference in their country’s affairs. Any reset regarding New Delhi will have to be driven by both strategic necessity and public sentiment.

Pakistan opening

Where India faces uncertainty, Pakistan sees opportunity. Under the interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Younis, Dhaka and Islamabad have resumed direct flights, eased visa rules and exchanged high-level civilian and military visits.

According to reports, analysts say progress under the BNP could accelerate. One observer noted that the election marked the end of the Awami League’s long-standing sycophancy with India and the “reopening of close relations” with Pakistan.

According to reports, the analyst argued that “Bangladesh does not have to balance its relations with India and Pakistan.” Relations with Pakistan have improved. “Pakistan should continue its current policy of prioritizing its relations with Dhaka.”

Last month, the Pakistani military announced that it was in talks with Bangladesh about the possible sale of JF-17 fighter jets; this was a sign that defense cooperation could expand.

For Islamabad, this is a chance to rebuild relations that have been fragile since 1971. For Dhaka, this provides an advantage in relations with India.

Deepening ties with China

But perhaps the most important relationship will be with Beijing.

Under Hasina, China has strengthened its economic footprint in Bangladesh through infrastructure projects and defense cooperation linked to the Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing has also improved ties across the political spectrum.

The interim government that followed Hasina provided approximately $2.1 billion in Chinese investments, loans and grants. Senior Bangladeshi names, including Yunus, visited Beijing during this period.

On Friday, the Chinese embassy congratulated the BNP and said it was ready to work with the new government on “writing new chapters in China-Bangladesh relations.”

According to reports, the BNP is likely to “further deepen relations with China, heeding past experiences of friendly relations” during previous BNP administrations. But they also warn of “growing American opposition to China’s growing presence in the region,” another factor Rahman should consider.

A delicate balancing act

Bangladesh currently finds itself at the center of an intensifying rivalry in the Bay of Bengal. India and China are in a strategic competition. India and Pakistan remain enemies. The US views China’s rise with suspicion.

Rahman committed to a “Bangladesh First” approach, promising that all foreign relations would serve national sovereignty, security and public welfare.

This principle will soon be tested.

With a strong parliamentary majority behind him, Rahman has room to maneuver. But every step taken towards Delhi, Islamabad or Beijing will have consequences. Bangladeshi voters distributed coins in their own country. Whether this change will reshape the region will depend on how bold and careful the new government charts its course.